海外半导体观察系列：CSP CapEx和英伟达的帐如何算？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - CSP CapEx is significantly aligned with server shipments and Nvidia's revenue, indicating a strong correlation between cloud service providers' capital expenditures and their server procurement [50][51] - The trend of CSP CapEx is shifting towards data centers, particularly focusing on GPU computing due to the explosion of demand for large model training driven by AIGC [50][51] - CSPs are expected to invest heavily in AI data centers, with approximately 30% of their CapEx directly contributing to Nvidia's Data Center revenue, a figure that is anticipated to increase [50][51] - The ROI from cloud computing power leasing is promising, with potential returns of $5 for every $1 spent on Nvidia's AI infrastructure over four years [67][68] Summary by Sections Section 1: Key Issues of Focus - CSP CapEx and server shipments are closely linked, with cloud providers becoming the main players in the server procurement market, increasing their market share from 38% in 2019 to approximately 46% in 2022 [50] - The shift towards AI and accelerated computing is evident, as traditional data centers adapt to meet the demands of AI applications [58] Section 2: North American CSPs - In Q3 2024, North American CSPs' CapEx totaled $58.86 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 59.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.4% [84] - Major players like Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon have shown significant increases in their CapEx, with Amazon leading at $22.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 81.3% [84]