计算机2025年度策略：科技自立自强，看好国产替代、AI落地

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the computer industry, indicating an expected increase in the sector's performance over the next 3-6 months [1]. Core Insights - The computer sector experienced fluctuations in 2024, transitioning from a weak to a strong market sentiment due to new policies and improved liquidity. The report highlights two main investment themes for 2025: domestic substitution and AI implementation [1]. - The domestic environment is expected to see a series of incremental policies that could enhance demand, while the international environment may face challenges such as trade tensions and technology export controls [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, particularly from government and large enterprises, and notes that valuation fluctuations have a more significant impact on market capitalization than fundamental changes [1]. Summary by Sections Main Line One: Domestic Substitution - The report identifies four catalysts for the domestic substitution sector in 2025: debt reduction improving payment capabilities, heightened urgency for domestic substitution due to US-China relations, replacement demand from existing products, and increased penetration in various sectors [1][48]. - The broad scope of domestic substitution includes infrastructure, basic software, application software, and information security [1][47]. - The industrial software sector is highlighted as a key area benefiting from domestic substitution, with expectations for significant profit elasticity due to high gross margins and a favorable economic cycle [1][59][64]. - The report notes that the industrial software market in China is currently underpenetrated compared to its global counterparts, indicating substantial growth potential [1][74]. Main Line Two: AI Implementation - The report discusses the acceleration of generative AI applications, particularly in B-end and C-end scenarios, with a focus on enhancing efficiency and providing emotional companionship [1][89]. - The generative AI models are expected to see increased market share among leading companies, while discriminative models are recommended for applications in security and intelligent driving [1][99]. - The report highlights the successful performance of AI application companies in overseas markets, suggesting that similar opportunities may arise in the domestic market as AI capabilities mature [1][125]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the industrial software sector, such as Zhongkong Technology, and AI application leaders like Kingsoft Office and Hikvision for digital scene applications [1][134].