11月美国非农数据点评：非农总量平稳，制造业略显疲软

Employment Data - In November, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 227,000, exceeding the expected 200,000 and the previous value of 36,000[3] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, matching expectations and slightly up from the previous 4.1%[3] Labor Market Insights - The labor market remains tight, with the job vacancy rate at 100.45% of the labor supply in October, indicating a stable demand-supply balance[5] - Labor participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.5%, while the employment rate fell to 59.8%, primarily affecting individuals aged 45 and above[5] Sector Performance - Major employment gains in November were seen in healthcare (54,000), leisure and hospitality (53,000), and government (33,000), while retail saw a decline of 28,000 jobs[5] - Manufacturing employment showed a slight increase of 22,000, largely due to the end of a Boeing strike, but overall manufacturing jobs continue to decline[6] Economic Policy Outlook - The policy interest rate is likely to reach 4%, with potential rate cuts in December and possibly in Q2 and Q3 of next year[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to remain between 4.6% and 4.85%, with a cautious approach to further rate cuts as inflation stabilizes around 2.5% to 3%[9] Market Sentiment - The U.S. stock market is viewed as being in a bubble phase, with a bubble risk estimated at 35%[9] - The overall sentiment remains neutral to slightly positive, with expectations of continued market stability post-election[9]