山西证券：研究早观点-20241210

Core Insights - The report highlights the positive outlook for the solar energy industry, driven by government support for renewable energy initiatives and stable component prices [4][27] - The semiconductor industry faces challenges due to U.S. export controls, but domestic companies are expected to accelerate their replacement processes [10][15] - The coal industry is experiencing a seasonal demand increase due to colder weather, with expectations for stable prices amid macroeconomic support [19][26] Market Trends - The overall market saw an increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.33% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.69% during the week [12] - The semiconductor sector showed resilience, with the Wind Semiconductor Index increasing by 0.36% [12] - The coal sector outperformed the market, with the CITIC Coal Index rising by 5.55% [25] Industry Commentary - In the solar energy sector, over 30 companies signed a self-discipline agreement to control production capacity, indicating a proactive approach to manage supply [27] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association revised its 2024 installation forecast to 230-260 GW, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [28] - The semiconductor industry is reacting to U.S. restrictions, with associations urging caution in the procurement of American chips [13][15] Price Tracking - The average price of polysilicon is reported at 39.0 CNY/kg, showing a slight decrease, while silicon wafer prices remain stable [31] - The price of M10 solar cells is stable at 0.275 CNY/W, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [32] - Coal prices are expected to remain high, with the current reference price for thermal coal at 818 CNY/ton [19][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic replacements in the semiconductor sector and high-performance AI chips driven by technological advancements [15] - In the coal sector, companies with high dividend yields and stable cash flows are recommended, such as China Shenhua and Shanxi Coal [26] - For the solar industry, companies involved in new technologies and those maintaining production discipline are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [33]