机械行业周报2024年第49周：NVIDIA参加ROSConChina2024，工程机械景气度持续提升

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The mechanical industry is experiencing a continuous improvement in prosperity, particularly in sub-industries such as humanoid robots and machine tools. The production of humanoid robots is expected to ramp up significantly by 2025, with Tesla leading the way in deployment and production [3][4]. - The machine tool sector shows positive growth, with Japan's machine tool orders in October 2024 reaching 122.42 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [5]. - The agricultural machinery market is projected to see long-term demand growth, particularly in tractor exports, which have shown a 17.9% increase year-on-year in October 2024 [8]. - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a recovery, with excavator sales in November 2024 increasing by 17.9% year-on-year, indicating a potential bottoming out of demand [12]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - Optimus, Tesla's humanoid robot, is set for small-scale production in early 2025, with plans for significant deployment by the end of that year [3]. - The industry is focused on enhancing training methods to improve robot capabilities, with 2025 marked as a pivotal year for maturity in humanoid robot technology [4]. Machine Tools & Cutting Tools - Japan's machine tool orders for October 2024 totaled 122.42 billion yen, with external orders increasing by 13.6% year-on-year [5]. - China's metal cutting machine tool production reached 60,000 units in October 2024, reflecting a 7.1% year-on-year growth [5]. Agricultural Machinery - The agricultural machinery market's sentiment index was at 39.9% in November 2024, showing a slight decline but indicating potential for future growth [8]. - Tractor exports from China reached $0.7 billion in October 2024, marking a 17.9% increase year-on-year, suggesting strong international demand [8]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is seeing a marginal improvement in demand, with excavator sales in November 2024 reaching 17,590 units, a 17.9% increase year-on-year [12]. - The upcoming infrastructure investments are expected to stabilize demand in the engineering machinery sector [12]. Mining Machinery - China's mining machinery exports from January to October 2024 amounted to $4.102 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, driven by rising capital expenditures in the mining sector [10]. Low-altitude Economy & EVTOL - The low-altitude economy is rapidly developing, with strategic partnerships and government initiatives supporting the growth of the UAV industry [18]. - The EVTOL sector is also gaining traction, with significant investments aimed at advancing the development of electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft [18]. Semiconductor Equipment - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow, with a focus on localizing production to reduce reliance on imports [14][15]. - The semiconductor equipment sales in China reached $34.2 billion in 2023, with a projected increase in domestic production capabilities [14]. New Energy Equipment - The photovoltaic industry is stabilizing, with procurement prices for solar components showing signs of stabilization [16]. - The market is expected to return to a healthier competitive environment as production capacity is adjusted [17]. Summary of Key Data - The PMI index for November 2024 rose to 50.3%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [23]. - The cumulative fixed asset investment in manufacturing for January to October 2024 increased by 9.3% year-on-year [33]. - The production of industrial robots in October 2024 saw a year-on-year increase of 33.4% [30].