公用事业行业2025年年度策略：电动化、尖峰化、市场化，寻找稀缺电力容量&显著边际变化

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the public utility sector, highlighting significant investment opportunities driven by electrification, peak load demand, and market reforms [4][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes three key trends for 2025: 1) Electrification and peak load demand are leading to a scarcity of power capacity, with expected tight supply and demand conditions in 2024 and worsening in 2025-2026 [4][22]. 2) Mergers and acquisitions are gaining momentum, with policies stimulating market activity and the consolidation of quality power assets by state-owned enterprises [4][50]. 3) Deepening electricity market reforms are transforming the power system, with new pricing mechanisms and market structures emerging [4][22]. Summary by Sections Electric Power Sector - The report forecasts a continuous increase in the return on equity (ROE) for the sector, with significant valuation advantages [4][21]. - The anticipated peak load electricity shortages will become more common, with a focus on the value of supporting power sources during peak demand [4][22]. Thermal Power - Thermal power is identified as a crucial supply source, benefiting from increased electricity demand and stable utilization hours [5][6]. - The report projects a rise in thermal power generation, with expected revenue from capacity fees increasing from 0.027 yuan in 2024-2025 to 0.04 yuan in 2026 [5][6]. Renewable Energy - The report notes that the construction of green energy is stabilizing, with easing pressure on consumption and a potential bottoming out of electricity prices for renewables [9][10]. - The development of offshore wind projects is accelerating, with significant capacity additions expected during the 14th Five-Year Plan [9][10]. Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector is set for accelerated growth, with a consistent approval process for new projects expected to contribute significantly to capacity by 2030 [10][11]. - The report anticipates a doubling of ROE and increased dividend potential as free cash flow turns positive by 2028 [10][11]. Hydropower - Hydropower is highlighted as a benchmark asset with strong cash flow value, with ongoing projects showing significant growth potential [11][12]. - The report recommends focusing on leading hydropower companies for investment opportunities [11][12].