12.9中央政治局会议解读

Policy Direction - The 2025 economic work will focus on "stabilizing growth" and "promoting innovation," with an emphasis on "system integration" and "collaborative cooperation" as new directions[12] - The meeting highlighted the importance of "strengthening extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments," indicating strong support for economic growth in 2025[5] Market Stabilization - The central government aims to "stabilize the real estate and stock markets," making asset price recovery a core macroeconomic goal for 2025[13] - The removal of the term "stop the decline" in real estate policy suggests a positive assessment of recent macroeconomic stimulus measures[13] Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The meeting proposed "more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies," indicating a continuation of a loose monetary stance in 2025, stronger than during the 2020 pandemic[14] - Historical data shows that after the 2008 introduction of "moderately loose" monetary policy, M2 growth surged, with economic growth averaging over 10% in the subsequent two years[14] Investment and Consumption Focus - The focus for 2025 will be on boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency, with a commitment to expanding domestic demand[7] - The government plans to support "new quality productivity" through technological innovation, shifting away from short-term low-efficiency investments[17] Risks and Uncertainties - Domestic monetary policy may be influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions, with rising U.S. inflation posing risks to domestic monetary easing[18] - The macroeconomic policy for 2025 faces significant uncertainties due to global geopolitical factors[18]