天风证券：晨会集萃-20241210

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The December Politburo meeting indicates that domestic demand will be a primary focus for policy in 2025, with expectations for expanded subsidies and investment in high-end manufacturing [1][2][19] - The meeting emphasizes the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance macroeconomic regulation effectiveness [2][21][22] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to provide further details on policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and promoting growth [19][23] Group 2: Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is expected to see a recovery in demand driven by the implementation of vehicle replacement policies, with significant increases in vehicle scrappage applications [12] - Key new energy vehicle models, including the Geely Starship 7 and NIO ET9, are set to launch in December 2024, indicating a strong supply-side push [12] - The overall sentiment in the automotive market is becoming more optimistic as policies to stimulate demand take effect [12] Group 3: Credit Market Outlook - The credit market is facing a scarcity of high-yield assets, with expectations that the "asset shortage" will continue into 2025 [27] - City investment bonds are projected to remain a primary source of high-yield assets, with a recommendation to participate in lower-rated city investment bonds in the short term [27] - The overall credit spread is expected to compress further, although the pace of this compression may slow down [27] Group 4: AI and Technology Sector - The AIAgent market is rapidly growing, with major international companies actively developing applications that enhance operational models and customer interactions [5] - Edge AI is anticipated to become a key traffic entry point, with hardware manufacturers integrating natural language processing capabilities into their systems [5] - The collaboration between edge AI and cloud computing is seen as a long-term optimal solution for maximizing AI application potential [5] Group 5: Consumer Market Trends - The "Guzi Economy" related to the two-dimensional culture is experiencing rapid growth, with a market size reaching several hundred billion yuan [5] - The Z generation is identified as the main consumer group, driving demand for personalized and customized products [5] - The expansion of domestic IP and local manufacturers is expected to enrich product offerings and stimulate market growth [5] Group 6: Company-Specific Insights - Chow Tai Fook's FY25H1 revenue decreased by 20.4% to HKD 39.41 billion, with a net profit decline of 44.4% due to fluctuations in international gold prices [28] - The company reported an operating profit of HKD 6.78 billion, reflecting a 4% increase, supported by higher gold prices and an increase in fixed-price gold products [28] - The company is focusing on brand transformation and digitalization to enhance long-term competitiveness, with a projected revenue of HKD 913 billion for FY25 [30]