轮胎行业专题报告（2024年11月）：USTMA上调对2024年美国轮胎出货量的预测，赛轮实控人拟增持

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the tire industry [1]. Core Insights - The USTMA has raised its forecast for U.S. tire shipments in 2024, now expecting a total shipment of 338.9 million tires, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [2][9]. - The retail sales of automotive parts and tire stores in the U.S. remain at historically high levels, with October 2024 sales reaching $12.013 billion, a month-on-month increase of 6.0% and a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [2][9]. - The report highlights the stability of downstream demand for tires, supported by stable diesel and gasoline consumption and vehicle sales [2][9]. Summary by Sections Raw Materials - The tire raw material price index for November 2024 is 179.27, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.63% and a year-on-year increase of 5.96% [9][11]. - Key raw material prices in November 2024 include: - Natural rubber: ¥17,013/ton, down 1.98% month-on-month, up 28.79% year-on-year - Styrene-butadiene rubber: ¥15,267/ton, down 8.09% month-on-month, up 25.93% year-on-year - Carbon black: ¥7,916/ton, down 3.82% month-on-month, down 16.13% year-on-year [9][11]. Production and Export - In November 2024, the average operating rate for Chinese all-steel tires is 60.51%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.75 percentage points, and a month-on-month increase of 6.66 percentage points. The average operating rate for semi-steel tires is 79.17%, a year-on-year increase of 6.58 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 2.71 percentage points [20]. - In October 2024, China produced 94.51 million rubber tire outer casings, a month-on-month decrease of 2.17% and a year-on-year increase of 11.37%. Exports of new inflatable rubber tires reached 5.636 million units, a month-on-month increase of 3.85% and a year-on-year increase of 15.47% [20]. Consumption - The replacement tire market shows resilience, with stable demand in the U.S. The global replacement market grew by 4% year-on-year in October 2024, while North America saw a decline of 4% [31]. - In November 2024, China's heavy truck sales were approximately 69,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 4.55% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.95% [36]. Shipping - Shipping costs continue to decline, contributing to the overall cost structure of the tire industry [5]. Industry News - The actual controller of Sailun Tire plans to increase shareholding, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2][9].