汽车和汽车零部件行业2024年11月乘联会数据跟踪报告：市场保持高景气度，商务部吹风传递补贴延续信号

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry [6]. Core Insights - The automotive market continues to show high prosperity, with strong performance in both wholesale and retail sectors. November production of narrow passenger vehicles increased by 14.0% year-on-year and 13.9% month-on-month to 3.018 million units. Retail sales in November rose by 16.5% year-on-year and 7.1% month-on-month to 2.423 million units [1]. - The report highlights the effectiveness of the vehicle replacement subsidy, which has exceeded expectations, with over 2 million applications for the subsidy by mid-November. This policy is expected to support sales through the end of the year [3]. - A year-end price war combined with the vehicle replacement policy is anticipated to drive sales momentum in December, with recommendations for leading companies in various segments [4]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Data - November production of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 44.7% year-on-year and 16.9% month-on-month to 1.481 million units. Year-to-date production for 2024 reached 10.727 million units, up 37.0% year-on-year [2]. - Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in November rose by 50.5% year-on-year to 1.268 million units, achieving a penetration rate of 52.3% [2]. - Export sales in November decreased by 6.3% year-on-year to 80,000 units, while year-to-date exports increased by 15.5% to 1.079 million units [2]. Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the central government may implement more proactive fiscal policies in 2025 to stimulate demand, with potential continuation of the vehicle replacement subsidy [3]. - The report predicts a 2.3% year-on-year increase in retail sales of passenger vehicles for 2024, with new energy vehicle sales expected to grow by 42.2% [3]. Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include BYD, with a "Buy" rating, and attention to Tesla, Xpeng Motors, NIO, and Geely for potential high elasticity in new model sales for 2025 [4]. - For automotive parts, Fuyao Glass is recommended, also with a "Buy" rating [4].