电动化、尖峰化、市场化，寻找稀缺电力容量、显著边际变化

Electric Power Industry Trends - Electrification and peak demand are driving power capacity scarcity, with peak load shortages expected to become more common in 2024-2026[4] - Regional power supply-demand imbalances are intensifying, particularly in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Shandong, and Shanghai[6] - Power sector ROE continues to rise, with valuation attractiveness significantly improving[4] Thermal Power - Thermal power remains a critical supply source, with utilization hours expected to stabilize in 2025[5] - Thermal power's value is expanding from energy-only to include capacity and flexibility, with capacity revenue expected to reach 0.04 yuan/kWh by 2026[5] - Coal prices are controllable with long-term contracts covering ≥80% of demand and a "benchmark + floating" pricing mechanism[5] Renewable Energy - Green power construction is stabilizing, with new installations slowing and absorption pressures easing[9] - Offshore wind projects show strong profitability, with equity IRR reaching 9.3% without grid fees[9] - Green power market prices may bottom out as reforms deepen and green premiums increase[9] Nuclear Power - Nuclear power is entering a phase of accelerated growth, with annual approvals of ≥10 units from 2022-2024[9] - Nuclear power's ROE is expected to rise, with free cash flow turning positive by 2028[10] - Market-based electricity pricing for nuclear power is declining at 60%-80% of the average market price reduction[10] Hydropower - Hydropower remains a benchmark for dividend assets, with significant growth potential in key river basins[10] - Market-based pricing for hydropower is increasing, with prices rising in Sichuan and Yunnan[10] Market Reforms and Restructuring - Power market reforms are accelerating, with a focus on building a national unified power market by 2025[69] - M&A activity is intensifying, with state-owned enterprises integrating high-quality power assets[4] - Local energy groups are accelerating strategic restructuring to enhance competitiveness[60] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include regional thermal power companies like Wanneng Power and national leaders like Huaneng Power and Huadian Power[6] - For green power, focus on leading operators like Longyuan Power and offshore wind developers like Fujian Energy[9] - In nuclear power, recommend China National Nuclear Power and CGN Power, with attention to CGN Power H-shares[10]