政策预期促反弹，预期落地后或转向结构性机会

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks rebounded for two consecutive weeks, with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.3% to close at 19,865 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.6%, closing at 4,464 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.7% to 7,136 points[2] - The average daily trading volume in the market slightly decreased by 1.4% to over HKD 135.2 billion[1] Economic Indicators - China's November CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, below the expected 0.4%, marking a five-month low[5] - The PPI decline narrowed to 2.5% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[6] - In the U.S., November non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000, exceeding expectations of 220,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%[8] Policy Expectations - Anticipation of significant fiscal stimulus and potential interest rate cuts from the upcoming December meetings is driving market sentiment[1] - The Federal Reserve's officials have indicated a cautious approach towards future rate cuts, with an 83% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December[9] Investment Recommendations - Sectors such as consumer internet, insurance, home appliances, and biotechnology are expected to show better resilience in the short term due to policy expectations[1] - Long-term investment opportunities are seen in new infrastructure and high-end manufacturing sectors, which are aligned with government fiscal policies[1] Currency and Bond Market - The U.S. dollar index has retreated to around 106.2, while the offshore RMB is expected to fluctuate between 7.25 and 7.30[35] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has dropped to approximately 4.19%, indicating a potential for bond market adjustments[1] Risk Factors - The report highlights risks including complex international situations, potential underperformance of policy effects, and escalating geopolitical tensions[36]