海外宏观札记：强美元步入间歇窗口期

Economic Overview - Global stock markets have rebounded, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reaching new historical highs, reflecting a continued high risk appetite among investors[4] - The U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs in November, slightly above the expected 220,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%[4][14] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month, indicating a labor market that, while showing signs of weakness, still demonstrates resilience[4][21] Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index fell to 106.06 but later rebounded, indicating a potential shift into a consolidation phase for the strong dollar[4][8] - Energy prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply excess, with crude oil prices dropping to $67.2 per barrel, the lowest in three weeks[4][8] - Bitcoin continues its upward trend, reflecting a favorable liquidity environment for risk assets[4][8] Future Projections - The strong dollar's tightening phase may enter a temporary pause, with expectations of a range-bound movement around the 104 level in the short term[4][26] - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to trend downwards, with year-end targets set between 4% and 4.1%[4][27] - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in early 2025, with projections for the policy rate to drop to 3.3% by the end of that year[4][27] Investment Insights - The current market environment favors both equities and bonds due to improved liquidity conditions, despite mixed economic data[4][21] - Non-U.S. equity markets are expected to catch up in performance as risk appetite remains high, with recent rebounds in European stocks signaling a shift in capital flows[4][38] - Risks include potential hard landing scenarios for the U.S. economy and inflationary pressures that could alter market expectations[4][39]