政治局会议打开2025年政策预期空间

Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on December 9, 2024, indicates a shift towards more proactive macroeconomic policies for 2025, focusing on boosting domestic demand[3] - The meeting confirmed that the main economic and social development goals for the year will be achieved, reinforcing confidence in the effectiveness of current growth policies[3] Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The report highlights a significant change in monetary policy, with the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) reduced by 35 basis points and the five-year LPR by 60 basis points in 2024, marking the largest cuts since the LPR reform[2] - The upcoming fiscal policy is expected to be more aggressive, with an emphasis on enhancing consumption and investment efficiency, supported by measures such as long-term special government bonds for consumer upgrades[3] Consumption and Investment - The government aims to stimulate consumption through fiscal measures, with a notable example being the "trade-in" program for household appliances, which has generated approximately 19.97 billion yuan in sales with a subsidy cost of around 40.4 billion yuan[3] - Investment strategies will focus on optimizing industrial layouts and directing resources towards new productive capacities, with potential measures including lowering project thresholds and promoting special bond projects[3] Reform Initiatives - The meeting emphasized the importance of implementing significant reform measures in 2025, including the establishment of a maternity subsidy system and the gradual implementation of retirement age adjustments[3] - The focus on local government empowerment to set tax rates and enhance growth incentives is expected to be a key highlight for the upcoming year[3] Risk Considerations - The report warns of potential risks from global conflicts impacting supply chains beyond expectations, which could affect domestic economic stability[3]