策略专题分析报告：FY2025如何在朱格拉框架下寻找结构性景气机会？

Group 1 - The overall revenue and profit of the non-financial sector in the A-share market remain weak, indicating that the "profit bottom" has not yet arrived. In Q3 2024, the cumulative year-on-year net profit for the entire A-share market was +0.05%, while the non-financial sector saw a decline of -7.06% [1][67]. - The main board has shown signs of profit recovery, while the ChiNext board continues to experience "revenue growth without profit," and the Sci-Tech Innovation board's performance is declining [1][67]. - The financial sector and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) industries are performing relatively better compared to others. Industries with improving conditions include banking, non-banking financials, electronics, telecommunications, and agriculture [1][67]. Group 2 - The report emphasizes the need to identify structural opportunities under the Juglar framework, focusing on three factors: expansion elasticity, expansion space, and expansion capability. Industries that benefit from capital expenditure (Capex) expansion are expected to achieve "excess returns" [2][11]. - The report predicts that the Juglar cycle will begin in Q4 2024, with the fastest Capex expansion expected in Q2 2025. The "buy point" for obtaining excess returns is anticipated in Q1 2025 [2][11]. - For H1 2025, industries with resilient economic conditions are identified, particularly those exporting to emerging markets. In H2 2025, industries benefiting from demand recovery in developed countries are expected to show economic elasticity [2][13][14].