12.9政治局会议精神学习：【东吴海外/策略/固收联合点评】政治局会议定调对A股、港股和债市有何影响

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a positive shift in fiscal and monetary policy, with a stronger emphasis on stimulating domestic demand and supporting the stock and real estate markets in 2025 [1][2][3] - The report highlights that the fiscal policy will transition to a more aggressive stance, with expectations of increased deficit rates and the issuance of special long-term bonds to boost economic activity [1][2] - The monetary policy is set to adopt a "moderately loose" approach for the first time in over a decade, suggesting potential interest rate cuts and reduced financing costs for the real economy [2][9] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic consumption and investment, particularly in light of external uncertainties, with a focus on enhancing consumer spending and investment efficiency [2][3] - It notes that the political bureau meeting explicitly mentioned stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, indicating a supportive stance from the central government [3][4] - The report underscores the significance of technological innovation and the development of a modern industrial system, positioning technology as a foundational support for China's modernization [3][7] Group 3 - The report suggests that the A-share market may experience a short-term boost in sentiment due to the anticipated policy easing, with a recommendation to focus on cyclical sectors [4][7] - For the Hong Kong stock market, the report indicates that low valuations combined with positive policy expectations could present new investment opportunities [8] - In the bond market, the "moderately loose" monetary policy could lead to unexpected interest rate cuts, potentially resulting in a "bull market" for both stocks and bonds [9][10]