策略点评报告：12/9政治局会议信号：政策定调十分积极，国内股债双牛有望延续

Core Insights - The report indicates a very positive policy tone from the Central Political Bureau meeting on December 9, 2024, emphasizing the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, along with enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments [18][19]. - The expected GDP growth target for 2025 is around 5% [19]. - The report anticipates a continuation of the dual bull market in stocks and bonds, driven by favorable macroeconomic policies [19][22]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy is described as "more proactive," with expectations of a deficit rate between 3.8% and 4%, and special bonds potentially exceeding 4 trillion yuan, while special national bonds may surpass 2 trillion yuan [19][22]. - The report highlights significant room for leveraging central finances, indicating a sustained push for broad fiscal expenditure [19]. Monetary Policy - The report notes the first mention of "moderately loose" monetary policy in 14 years, suggesting potential for substantial cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates in 2025, possibly the largest in a decade [19][22]. - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased by 3.4 basis points, falling below 1.92% [22]. Consumption Policy - The report emphasizes the need to "vigorously boost consumption" and "expand domestic demand comprehensively" to counterbalance the external demand gap caused by tariffs [19][22]. - It predicts increased support for sectors such as home appliances, automotive, machinery, and consumer electronics [19]. Industrial Policy - The report advocates for "leading new quality productivity development through technological innovation," aiming to build a modern industrial system and promote structural upgrades [19][22]. - It highlights the importance of the CSI A500 ETF, which includes leading companies in new quality productivity, as a valuable investment option [19]. Real Estate and Stock Market - The report stresses the need to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, with higher expectations for revitalizing capital markets compared to previous meetings [19][20]. - It notes the interconnection between real estate, local government investment, and consumer sentiment, indicating that these markets are crucial for household wealth [20]. Reform Measures - The report calls for leveraging economic system reforms to ensure the effective implementation of significant reform measures, closely monitoring the outcomes of the 20th Central Committee's third plenary session [22]. - It emphasizes the importance of market economy reforms, fiscal reforms, state-owned enterprise reforms, and comprehensive innovation system reforms [22]. Asset Strategy - Following the announcement, Chinese stocks and bonds showed positive performance, with the FTSE A50 futures jumping nearly 5% and the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF rising over 18% [22]. - The report suggests focusing on low-crowded, high-dividend sectors such as coal, transportation, utilities, and banks, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic demand stimulation and technology growth themes [22].