工程机械行业跟踪：从左侧到右侧，从外需到内需

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry is transitioning from external demand to internal demand. The average increase in stock prices for the top five manufacturers in A-shares has exceeded 50% from the beginning of 2024 to the present. Excavators have led the recovery, with sales of 180,000 units from January to November 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [2] - The average net profit growth rate for the top five engineering machinery companies is 7% and 44%, indicating that revenue growth is driving the industry's scale effect. Internal demand is supported by stock replacement and de-real estate trends, with small excavators growing rapidly, accounting for 75% of excavator sales in the first half of 2024 [2] - External demand is characterized by a multi-tiered product matrix, with domestic companies increasing their market share in overseas markets from 15% in 2023 to 21% in 2024. The global demand for excavators is expected to be 387,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 20% [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a shift from large-scale projects to smaller municipal and rural projects, leading to significant growth in small excavators. The aging of existing excavators is expected to drive replacement demand, with an estimated natural exit of 100,000 units in 2024 increasing to 230,000 units by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 33% [2] Company Performance - The top four manufacturers have improved their market concentration, with the CR4 and CR8 reaching 68% and 85% respectively in the first nine months of 2024, an increase of 4.6 percentage points and 3.2 percentage points year-on-year. The focus is now on high-quality development and asset quality [2] Investment Recommendations - The underlying logic for industry growth is based on undervaluation, export increments, stabilization of internal demand, and improvement in corporate profitability. Recommended stocks include: - High elasticity excavator manufacturers: SANY Heavy Industry, Hengli Hydraulic - Undervalued high-dividend stocks: Zoomlion - State-owned enterprise reform stocks: XCMG, LiuGong, Shantui [2]