2024年11月贸易数据解读：11月出口增速高位回落，进口降幅扩大

Export Data - In November 2024, the export value increased by 6.7% year-on-year, a significant drop of 6 percentage points from October's 12.7% growth[2][4] - The export growth rate in November, when measured in RMB, was 5.8%, compared to a decline of 4.7% in imports[3] - The high base effect from the previous year, where November 2023 saw a 0.7% increase, contributed to the lower growth rate in November 2024[4] Import Data - November 2024 saw a 3.9% year-on-year decline in imports, which is a 1.6 percentage point increase in the decline compared to October[10] - The marginal growth momentum for imports was weak, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.8% in November, below seasonal expectations[10][11] - Key commodities showed varied trends: - Oil imports saw a price drop but a volume increase, leading to a reduced decline in import value to -4.7%[15] - Iron ore imports turned negative at -0.9%, with prices also declining, contributing to a larger drop in import value[15] - Soybean imports fell by 9.7% in volume, leading to a 22.5% decline in import value[15] Future Outlook - The export growth for December is projected to be around 6.0%, influenced by potential "rush exports" to the U.S.[8] - For imports, December's growth is expected to be limited, likely around 0%, due to high base effects and falling commodity prices[16]