国君2025年度策略|能源运营:电价新周期,结构优于总量

Industry Investment Rating - The public utilities sector is currently at historically low absolute valuations [1] Core Views - The government's priority for the power industry has shifted from "reducing electricity prices" to "ensuring supply security" and "low-carbon transition" [2] - Power companies need to ensure reasonable expected returns for thermal power projects to stimulate investment enthusiasm [2] - Increased capital expenditure on new energy is required to meet clean and low-carbon transition needs [2] - The power system reform is progressing, with new energy market entry accelerating and time-of-use pricing mechanisms being introduced in some provinces [3] - Thermal power is gradually transitioning from base-load power to regulating power due to the development of new energy [3] Investment Opportunities Thermal Power - Three non-cyclical factors (capacity electricity price support, reduced financing costs, long-term coal cost locking) are driving the weakening of industry cyclicality [4] - Overall profitability stability of thermal power has improved, but regional profit differentiation exists [4] Hydropower - High-quality large hydropower projects are recommended for reverse layout, regardless of water inflow pressure [4] Nuclear Power - Long-term implied return rates are worth attention [4] Wind and Solar Power - High-quality stocks with excellent locations and high wind power ratios should be selected [4] Gas - Focus on the improvement trend of free cash flow and the enhancement of dividend value [4]