房地行业动态点评：关注货币政策和增量政策的落地

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development sector and an "Overweight" rating for the real estate services sector [1][1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monetary policy and incremental policy implementation, highlighting that the central government has reiterated support for the real estate sector, which is expected to lead to a more favorable environment for market recovery and stabilization [1][1]. - The report notes a significant decline in mortgage rates since 2021, with first and second home loan rates dropping by 265 and 283 basis points respectively, indicating potential for further adjustments [1][1]. - The report anticipates that the real estate market will see a recovery in fundamentals, supported by policy measures, with a focus on destocking, urban village renovations, and potential easing of restrictions in major cities [1][1]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy - The report indicates that the recent meeting of the central political bureau has set expectations for further easing of monetary policy, which is expected to strengthen the downward trend in mortgage rates [1][1]. - As of November 2024, the mortgage rates for first and second homes have decreased to 3.10% and 3.17% respectively, with further adjustments anticipated [1][1]. Incremental Policies - The report outlines several key areas for future policy focus, including further optimization of destocking measures, urban village renovations, and potential lifting of restrictions in first-tier cities [1][1]. - The report highlights that since the introduction of the "926" policy, there has been a continuous easing of real estate policies, including adjustments to down payment ratios and mortgage rates [1][1]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - A-share Developers: Chengdu Investment Holdings, Chengjian Development, Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou, Jianfa Co., New Town Holdings [1][1]. - Hong Kong Developers: China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, Jianfa International Group, Yuexiu Property [1][1]. - Property Management Companies: Greentown Service, China Overseas Property, Poly Property, China Merchants Jiyu [1][1]. Market Performance - The report notes that from September 26, 2023, the industry has shown positive feedback, with new home sales in 54 cities showing a year-on-year growth of 17% in October-November, a significant improvement from a decline of 26% in September [1][1]. - The report also mentions that the second-hand housing market has seen a notable increase in transaction volume, with a year-on-year growth of 104% in December [1][1].