2025年建筑、周期建材年度策略：财政扩张、供给侧优化下国内景气有望改善，出海机遇可期

Macro Outlook - Fiscal policy is expected to expand aggressively in 2025, with incremental policies likely to continue being introduced [6] - Infrastructure investment growth is expected to accelerate, while real estate investment decline is expected to narrow, driving a stabilization and recovery in physical demand [4] - The central government's fiscal leverage is expected to drive infrastructure investment, with key areas including water conservancy, energy, and urban renewal [4] Construction Engineering - Local debt resolution is expected to improve the payment capacity of project owners, benefiting the cash flow and balance sheet repair of construction engineering companies [4] - The central government's fiscal leverage is expected to drive infrastructure investment, with key areas including water conservancy, energy, and urban renewal [4] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is expected to continue to be strengthened, with overseas engineering demand likely to remain strong [4] Cement Industry - Cement demand continued to decline in 2024, with overcapacity issues intensifying, leading to the first industry-wide loss in recent years [57] - The industry's mid-term bottom is expected to be confirmed, with supply-side adjustments likely to strengthen, leading to a faster and more stable rebalancing of supply and demand [57] - The carbon trading era is expected to accelerate the elimination of inefficient capacity, consolidating the industry's long-term profit foundation [57] Investment Recommendations - Low-valuation construction central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are expected to see continued valuation repair opportunities, with recommended stocks including China Communications Construction, Power Construction Corporation of China, and China Railway Group [50] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is expected to benefit international engineering companies, with recommended stocks including Sinoma International and Shanghai Harbor [51] - New business opportunities in prefabricated buildings, energy-saving, and new energy-related infrastructure are expected to benefit companies with relevant transformation layouts, with recommended stocks including Honglu Steel Structure and Huayang International [51]