Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - E-commerce penetration remains steady, with a shift towards smaller packages in express delivery. In Q3 2024, the year-on-year growth rate of online retail sales of goods and services was 6.4%, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.2%, an increase from 5.2% in Q3 2023 [4][23] - Major e-commerce platforms reported revenue growth in Q3 2024, with Alibaba and JD.com showing single-digit growth, while Pinduoduo's revenue surged by 44.3%. The core business revenue growth rates for Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Vipshop were 2.5%, 6.3%, 71.5%, and -9.2% respectively [5][27] - The Double Eleven shopping festival in 2024 saw an early start and extended duration, with expectations for GMV performance to exceed forecasts due to enhanced product pricing power and service quality across platforms [5][6][97] Summary by Sections Q3 2024 E-commerce Growth and OTA Recovery - E-commerce penetration remains robust, with express delivery showing a trend towards smaller packages. Q3 2024 online retail sales of goods and services reached a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, while physical goods online retail sales grew by 6.2% [4][23] - Major e-commerce platforms maintained positive revenue growth, with Alibaba and JD.com achieving single-digit growth rates, while Pinduoduo's revenue increased significantly by 44.3% [5][27] - The online travel agency (OTA) sector also showed strong recovery, with Ctrip and Tongcheng achieving notable revenue growth in Q3 2024 [48][49] Major E-commerce Platforms Maintain Positive Shareholder Value - In Q3 2024, leading e-commerce platforms continued to focus on shareholder returns, with Alibaba repurchasing 4.05 million shares worth 390 million worth of shares [68][69] Double Eleven: From Low Price Wars to Stabilizing Fundamentals - The strategy for the Double Eleven shopping festival shifted from a focus on low prices to enhancing consumer experience, with platforms extending the duration of promotional activities [97][100] - The implementation of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy significantly boosted appliance sales during the Double Eleven event, with total sales reaching 14.418 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.6% [117][124] Investment Recommendations - Focus on JD.com, which benefits from the "old-for-new" policy and improved product layout; Alibaba, which is undergoing organizational restructuring to enhance growth potential; Pinduoduo, which is improving its monetization rate; and Vipshop, which is actively repurchasing shares [6][127]
电商行业专题：电商业绩表现稳健，大促发力和政策刺激促增长
广发证券·2024-12-10 08:32