原油月报：IEA和EIA提高2024年原油需求增量预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - The IEA, EIA, and OPEC have raised their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024, with average inventory changes predicted to be -72.13 thousand barrels per day, an improvement from previous estimates [1][24]. - For 2025, the three agencies project varying changes in global oil inventory, with IEA predicting an increase of 110.71 thousand barrels per day, while OPEC forecasts a decrease of 133.25 thousand barrels per day [24]. - The report highlights that the global oil supply for 2024 is expected to increase, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC predicting supply levels of 10,288.65, 10,262.16, and 10,231.21 million barrels per day respectively [1][24]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of December 9, 2024, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Russian Urals prices were $72.14, $68.37, $69.05, and $67.20 per barrel respectively, with recent monthly changes of +0.43% for Brent and +0.49% for WTI [1][11][12]. Global Oil Inventory - The report indicates that as of November 29, 2024, the total U.S. crude oil inventory was 81,518.2 million barrels, with a slight increase of 30.1 million barrels month-on-month [17][18]. - OECD commercial oil inventories decreased by 700.00 million barrels, reflecting a 0.53% decline [17][18]. Global Oil Supply - The global oil supply forecast for 2024 shows an increase, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC predicting supply levels of 10,288.65, 10,262.16, and 10,231.21 million barrels per day respectively, indicating a year-on-year increase [1][24]. Global Oil Demand - The demand forecast for 2024 indicates an increase, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC predicting demand levels of 10,281.71, 10,313.75, and 10,402.96 million barrels per day respectively, compared to 2023 [1][24].