12月政治局会议点评：着力推动稳增长，逆周期政策空间可期

Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 9, 2024, emphasized the importance of economic recovery in 2025, aiming for a GDP growth target of 5% in 2024[2] - The meeting highlighted the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to ensure the completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and a smooth transition to the 15th Five-Year Plan[2] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive, with an anticipated increase in the deficit ratio for 2025, allowing for greater borrowing capacity[2] - The focus will be on debt resolution, with potential increases in special government bond issuance to support economic recovery[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy stance has shifted to "moderately loose," marking the first change since 2011, with room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2025[2] - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to be enriched, particularly to support sectors like technology, real estate, and consumption[2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The meeting underscored the importance of expanding domestic demand, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment expected to be prioritized[2] - Initiatives to stimulate consumer spending, including trade-in programs and support for childbearing and elderly care, are anticipated[2] Capital Markets - The meeting indicated a positive outlook for capital markets, with a focus on stabilizing the stock and real estate markets to enhance investment efficiency[2] - Short-term market sentiment is expected to improve due to policy support, particularly benefiting sectors like technology and consumption[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected foreign policy changes and the possibility that domestic policy implementation may fall short of expectations, which could weaken consumer confidence[6]