2025年资产配置展望：以质换量：从商品表现来看周期与资产配置

Economic Cycle Insights - The current economic cycle is in the early stages of recovery, characterized by a decline in money supply and a gradual improvement in corporate profits[3] - Since 2000, the compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for crude oil, gold, and copper prices have been 4.2%, 9.7%, and 6.8% respectively, indicating a strong correlation between commodity prices and economic cycles[11] Commodity Price Trends - Commodity prices are closely linked to inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) being lagging indicators[4] - The CRB index, which tracks various economic-sensitive commodities, often sees price increases towards the end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycles[14] Future Projections - Global GDP growth is projected to stabilize at 3.2% for both 2024 and 2025, with oil prices expected to fluctuate between $55 and $80 per barrel in 2025[68] - The global steel demand is forecasted to decline by 0.9% in 2023, with a potential recovery expected by 2025[49] Investment Strategies - The report suggests a re-evaluation of asset allocation strategies, emphasizing the importance of understanding the cyclical nature of commodities and their impact on corporate profitability[24] - The anticipated recovery in industrial profits is supported by a projected 2.1% decline in producer prices year-on-year, indicating potential for future price increases[36] Risk Considerations - The report highlights risks associated with rapid commodity price increases, which may lead to stock price corrections if sustainability is questioned[36] - The divergence in manufacturing and service sector performance may pose challenges for economic stability, particularly if manufacturing weakness affects service sector growth[56]