环保：政治局会议定调2025年“更加积极的财政政策”，关注To G及顺周期资产
Changjiang Securities·2024-12-10 09:13

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9]. Core Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 9, 2024, proposing a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy for 2025, focusing on green transformation and carbon reduction [5][6]. - The report highlights that the more proactive fiscal policy is expected to improve cash flow in sectors such as water management and waste incineration, which are primarily government-related businesses [6]. - The report emphasizes the potential growth in electric sanitation equipment and hydrogen energy sectors, driven by government funding and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" assessments [7]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy and Industry Impact - The proactive fiscal policy is anticipated to enhance cash flow for water and waste management sectors, which have faced challenges due to increased accounts receivable periods [6]. - The report notes that the current price-to-earnings ratios (PE) for companies like Hongcheng Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hanlan Environment are around 11.0x to 11.1x, suggesting a potential for stable returns through EPS growth and dividends [6]. Growth in Electric Sanitation and Hydrogen Energy - Sales of electric sanitation equipment increased by 42.3% year-on-year from January to September 2024, with penetration rates rising significantly [7]. - Fuel cell vehicle sales also saw a year-on-year increase of 42.7%, indicating a recovery in the second half of the year and a growing market space [7]. Cyclical Stocks and Related Sectors - Companies like Longjing Environmental and Weiming Environmental are expected to benefit from increased demand in their respective sectors as economic conditions improve [7]. - The report identifies cyclical stocks in testing services and renewable resources, suggesting a focus on companies that align with government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [8].