美股策略：美国大选后2025年投资市场动向分析

Economic Indicators and Historical Context - During Trump's previous term, the average monthly CPI increase was 0.16%, and core CPI was 0.156%, indicating no significant inflation surge[4] - The average unemployment rate during Trump's term was 5.0%, or 3.96% excluding the COVID-19 period, showing a declining trend pre-pandemic[9][10] - Retail sales during Trump's term averaged a 0.39% monthly increase, with core retail sales (excluding volatile items) at 0.5%, reflecting stable consumer spending[14] Corporate and Market Performance - S&P 500 companies saw an average earnings growth of 7.13% during Trump's term, with a cumulative increase of 67.8% and a CAGR of 13.8%[28] - Republican presidencies historically yielded an average S&P 500 return of 6.5% annually, while Democratic presidencies averaged 10%, though excluding George W. Bush, Republican returns were 8.7%, similar to Democrats[32][33] 2025 Investment Opportunities - Treasury yields surged ahead of the election, with the 10-year yield rising from 3.6% in September to 4.5% in November, impacting long-term bond ETFs like TLT, which fell over 11%[39] - Small-cap stocks, particularly the Russell 2000, historically outperform the S&P 500 during economic recoveries, with an average outperformance of 27.3% and absolute returns of 60.2% over 19.4 months[52][53] - Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, are expected to benefit from favorable regulatory changes under Trump, with Bitcoin prices surpassing $100,000 and gaining recognition as a competitor to gold[57][61] Tariff and Trade Policies - Tariff revenues increased from$3.5 billion in June 2018 to $6 billion by December 2018, with 2024 monthly revenues averaging$6.6 billion, reflecting ongoing trade tensions[62] - Proposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could increase import costs by $330 billion annually, equivalent to 4$1.2 trillion over a decade[66] Sector and Market Outlook - Traditional sectors like finance and energy are expected to benefit from deregulation and tax cuts, while small-cap stocks are poised for outperformance in a potential soft landing scenario[49][72] - A shift towards sector rotation is anticipated, with small-cap and traditional sectors gaining momentum, while large-cap tech stocks face valuation pressures[72]