港股晨报 2025 年 7 月 23 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国证视点：港股续创高位，关注券商板块 港股昨日再有进账，高开高走。恒指高开 30 点报 25024 点，早市曾倒跌 93 点报 24900 点，随后回升，并以最高位收市。恒指收报 25130 点，也是全日 高位，全日升 135 点或 0.54%。大市交投与上日持平，主板成交报 2661 亿元， 较上日增加 1.2%。其中港股通成交近 1628 亿元，占大市买卖盘成交 30.6%， 属高水平。 港股通交易保持净流入状态，但金额减少。北水昨日净流入 27.17 亿港元，较 上日少 61.5%。北水净买入最多的个股依次是国寿 2628.HK、建行 939.HK、 中芯 981.HK；净卖出最多的依次是国泰君安国际 1788.HK、腾讯 700.HK。 板块表现方面，12 个恒生综合行业指数中 11 个上扬 1 个微跌。上涨板块中， 材料、综合企业、能源、工业、公用事业、必选消费及地产建筑涨 3.40%-1.32%， 跑赢恒生综指的 0.53%涨幅。重磅的资讯科技及可选消费涨 0.44%及 0.43%， 跑输大市。录得跌幅的板块 ...

港股晨报 2025 年 7 月 22 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国证视点：大市创近期新高，动力依然 港股昨日延续涨势，大市全日在高位区间上落。恒指高开 165 点报 24991 点， 盘中最低收窄涨幅至 19 点报 24844 点，最高则升 185 点报 25010 点。恒指 收报 24994 点，升 168 点或 0.7%。大市交投持续回升，主板成交报 2630 亿 元，较上日增加 10.2%。其中港股通成交近 1604 亿元，占大市买卖盘成交 30.5%，属高水平。 港股通交易保持净流入状态，北水昨日净流入70.51亿港元，较上日增加18.9%。 北水净买入最多的个股依次是东方电气 1072.HK、建行 939.HK、中国能源建 设 3996.HK；净卖出最多的依次是美团 3690.HK、小米 1810.HK、国泰君安 国际 1788.HK。 板块表现方面，12 个恒生综合行业指数中 10 个上扬 2 个下跌。上涨板块中， 材料、能源、地产建筑、必需性消费、公用事业、工业制品、综合企业及可选 消费跑赢恒生综指，涨幅为 3.41%-0.99%，对比恒生综指涨 0.66%。下跌的两 ...

港股晨报 2025 年 7 月 21 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国证视点：港股仍有动力创 52 周高 连续两日回吐后，港股于周五反弹，走势呈小"V"形态。恒指高开 258 点报 24757 点，随后扩大涨幅至逾 300 点，盘中曾收窄涨幅至 131 点报 24630 点， 尾盘再度冲高，最终以全日高位收盘。恒指收报 24825 点，全日升 326 点或 1.33%。恒生科指涨 1.65%，连续 6 个交易日跑赢大盘。大市交投略为回升， 主板成交报 2387 亿港元，较上个交易日多 0.96%。全周，恒指涨 2.84%，恒 生科指更大升 5.53%。 港股通交易保持净流入状态。北水于周五净流入 59.31 亿元，较上日增加 219.7%。北水净买入最多的个股依次是中芯 981.HK、阿里 9988.HK、众安在 线 6060.HK；净卖出最多的依次是腾讯 700.HK、小米 1810.HK、国泰君安国 际 1788.HK。 板块表现方面，12 个恒生综合行业指数全线上扬，领涨板块包括材料、可选消 费、金融及必选消费，涨幅为 2.47%-1.29%，高于恒生综指的 1.23%涨幅。落 后 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 113.6, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of HKD 92.45 [6]. Core Insights - Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, slightly below expectations, while FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth. Other brands saw significant growth of 50-55% [2][3]. - The company has completed the acquisition of Jack Wolfskin, a German outdoor brand, for USD 290 million, which is expected to enhance its presence in the outdoor market in China [3]. - The financial projections for EPS from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at RMB 4.72, RMB 5.26, and RMB 5.88 respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory despite some fluctuations in profit margins [4][3]. Summary by Sections Brand Performance - Anta's main brand experienced low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, with children's products performing better than bulk items. The overall H1 performance showed mid-single-digit growth [2]. - FILA's Q2 2025 revenue growth was in the mid-single digits, aligning with expectations, while other brands, including Descente and KOLON, reported over 40% and 70% growth respectively [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62.36 billion in 2023 to RMB 92.97 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.8% [4]. - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be RMB 13.25 billion, reflecting a decrease of 15% compared to 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a 2025 PE ratio of 22 times, based on industry averages and brand premium considerations, supporting the target price of HKD 113.6 [3][4]. - The projected gross margin remains stable around 62%, with net profit margins expected to fluctuate between 16.9% and 17.8% over the forecast period [4][11].

SDICSI 2025 年 7 月 18 日 港股通名单观察 港股通名单 25H1 检讨预测 恒生指数有限公司（恒指公司）将于 8 月 22 日发布恒生指数系列（包括恒生综 指）的 25H1 检讨结果，相关变动将于 9 月 8 日生效。由于恒生综指的变动将影 响港股通名单，其变动受到投资者的高度重视。是次检讨，我们预期：【 1 】纳入 恒生综指的日均市值门槛从 24H2 检讨时的 60.3 亿港元大升至 73.3 亿港元，剔 出门槛则从 39.3 亿港元大升至 46.3 亿港元；【 2 】 20 只非 A+H 股份将因获纳入 恒生综指而成为港股通新贵； 5 只已在 A 股上市近期在港交所主板上市的 H 股 （ A+H 身份），将于稳定股价期结束后，陆续在 7.16-8.13 之间成为港股通。 【 3 】 18 只现有港股通股份将丧失港股通资格。相关股份名单见内文。 我们也对 25H2 的检讨做了一个初步预测。假设上市公司名单及公司市值从目前 （ 7.17 ）至年底保持不变，纳入及剔出恒生综指的日均市值将分别为 88.67 亿及 55.75 亿港元。两只 7 月份上市的半新股可望通过 Q3 检讨入通，另有 6 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The report indicates that concerns over economic recession have eased, with US stock markets reaching new highs, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks may follow suit [2][4] - The Hang Seng Index showed slight fluctuations, closing at 24,498 points, down 18 points or 0.08%, with trading volume decreasing to 236.4 billion HKD, an 8.7% drop from the previous day [2][3] - Northbound trading maintained a net inflow status, with a net inflow of 1.855 billion HKD, an increase of 15.7% from the previous day [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Among the 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices, 6 rose and 6 fell, with the healthcare sector leading with a significant increase of 5.17% [3] - Other sectors that performed well included consumer staples and industrials, with gains ranging from 0.67% to 0.21% [3] - The materials, energy, and financial sectors experienced declines, with losses between 1.00% and 0.31% [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - Derlin International (1126.HK) - Derlin International is a leading global toy manufacturer, established in 1992 and listed in Hong Kong in 2002, focusing on designing, developing, producing, and selling toys [6] - The company reported revenues of 27.66 billion HKD from plush toys (50.7% of total revenue) and 23.11 billion HKD from plastic models (42.4% of total revenue) for 2024 [6][8] - Derlin operates 27 factories with an average capacity utilization rate of 80.2% in 2024, with plans for further capacity expansion in Indonesia and Vietnam to meet diverse supply chain demands [7][9] Group 4: Financial Performance - Derlin's revenue over the past three years showed fluctuations: 62.53 billion HKD in 2022, 53.52 billion HKD in 2023, and 54.50 billion HKD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 30.27%, -14.40%, and 1.82% respectively [8] - The gross profit margins were 19.65%, 25.12%, and 23.01% for the same years, influenced by product mix changes [8] - The net profit figures were 6.87 billion HKD, 8.30 billion HKD, and 7.38 billion HKD, reflecting a growth of 255%, 20.78%, and a decline of 11.01% respectively [8] Group 5: Future Outlook - Derlin International is positioned to benefit from the trend of popular toys, supported by a strong design and R&D team, with four design centers and approximately 150 designers [9] - The company’s ownership of factories in China and Vietnam provides a competitive edge in the context of supply chain diversification [9] - The report anticipates that as the demand for trendy toys increases, Derlin will continue to expand its capacity and seize more business opportunities [9]

港股晨报 2025 年 7 月 17 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国证视点：美联储独立性受挑战，美债息率或有上升压 力 港股通交易保持净流入状态，但金额持续减少。北水昨日净流入 16.03 亿港元， 较上日少 58.1%。北水净买入最多的个股依次是美团 3690.HK、建行 939.HK、 康方生物 9926.HK；净卖出最多的依次是腾讯 700.HK、小米 1810.HK、金山 云 3896.HK。 板块表现方面，12 个恒生综合行业指数中，7 个上升 8 个下跌。4 个上升的板 块为医疗保健、电讯、必需性消费及综合企业，涨幅为 0.83%-0.05%；下跌的 板块中，地产建筑、资讯科技、金融、能源及可选消费领跌，跌幅为 1.13%- 0.29%，超过恒生综指的 0.28%跌幅。 美股昨晚回升，美国上月生产物价指数增幅低过预期，市场对通胀忧虑略为缓 和。美股三项主要指数均高开，但其后有报道指，美国总统特朗普将解雇美联 储主席鲍威尔，大市一度倒跌，特朗普否认报道后，大市由低位反弹。道指、 标指及纳指均收涨，升幅分别为 0.53%、0.32%及 0.25%。 我们认为，特朗普正在试探市场 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 19.2 for 2025, based on a 20x PE ratio [1][4][7]. Core Insights - Li Ning's overall platform revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, with offline channels experiencing low single-digit decline while e-commerce channels saw mid-single-digit growth [2][4]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the running and fitness categories, both achieving high single-digit growth, while the basketball category faced a decline of over 20% due to market conditions [2][3]. - The company continues to optimize its channel structure, with a net decrease of 18 stores year-to-date, and plans to expand new store layouts as per strategy [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: 2025E at RMB 28,698 million, 2026E at RMB 30,498 million, and 2027E at RMB 31,943 million, reflecting growth rates of 0.1%, 6.3%, and 4.7% respectively [5][12]. - The forecasted EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.88, with a decline in net profit expected to RMB 2,269 million, a decrease of 24.7% compared to the previous year [5][12]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 49.2% for 2025, with a slight increase to 49.5% by 2027 [5][13].

港股晨报 2025 年 7 月 16 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国证视点：美国放宽对中国出口芯片加关税谈判有进展， 港股挑战 52 周高 港股昨日再有进账，连升四日，大市初段走高后盘中曾倒跌，午后发力回升， 并以全日高位收盘。恒指高开 78 点报 24281 点，早市最低倒跌 61 点报 24141 点，其后谷底回升，午后最高升 386 点报 24590 点，也是收市报价，全日升 386 点或 1.60%。大市交投大幅回升，主板成交报 2884 亿港元，较上日多 37.1%。港股通成交近 1508 亿港元，占买卖盘总成交 26.2%。 港股通交易保持净流入状态，但金额减少。北水昨日净流入 38.24 亿港元，较 上日少 53.6%。北水净买入最多的个股依次是美团 3690.HK、石药集团 1093.HK、快手 1024.HK；净卖出最多的依次是腾讯 700.HK、小米 1810.HK、 中芯 981.HK。 板块表现方面，12 个恒生综合行业指数中，8 个上升 4 个下跌。上升板块中， 可选消费、医疗保健及资讯科技领涨，升幅为 3.72%-2.48%，跑赢恒生综指的 1.63%涨幅。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience with a three-day upward trend, closing at 24,203 points, up 63 points or 0.3% [2] - The main board turnover was HKD 210.4 billion, a decrease of 35.1% from the previous day's high of HKD 324 billion [2] - Northbound trading maintained a net inflow status, with a significant increase of 372.7% in net inflow to HKD 8.243 billion [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The social financing data released by the People's Bank of China for the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations, with a total increase of CNY 22.8 trillion, a year-on-year growth of 26.2% [4] - New RMB loans amounted to CNY 12.9 trillion, indicating reasonable growth in financial volume and a continuous decline in financing costs [4] - Despite strong overall data, some monthly credit data showed weakness, reflecting uncertainty in corporate expectations [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Tmall (6110.HK) - Tmall reported a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year to HKD 27.01 billion, primarily due to weak offline consumption and reduced foot traffic [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 41.9% to HKD 1.29 billion, with the decline in profit outpacing revenue due to high fixed costs [6] - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 135%, distributing a final dividend of HKD 0.02 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.12 per share, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [6] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Tmall is optimizing its store structure, reducing the number of direct-operated stores by 18.3% to 5,020, while focusing on improving operational efficiency [7] - The company is expanding its brand partnerships, including collaborations with high-end running brands, to diversify its brand matrix [7] - Future performance is expected to improve as retail consumption conditions recover, with projected EPS for FY26/27/28 at HKD 0.21/0.22/0.23, and a target price of HKD 3.6 based on a 16x PE for FY26 [7]