线控转向量产将至 2026 年是耐世特线控转向量产元年，顺应自动驾驶大浪潮，转向行业将迎来产业 升级。我们以 2026 年 18 倍 PE 为估值参考，目标价 10.2 港元，买入评级。 报告摘要 26 年线控转向迎来商业化落地。汽车的转向系统处在从电控转向（EPS）向线控 转向(SBW)升级中，ASP 从 C-EPS 的 1000 元至 R- EPS 的 2000 元至 SBW 的 4000 元持续提升。当前 EPS 仍为行业主流，国内渗透率已达 99%。耐世特的线 控转向客户与订单在不断增多，耐世特是特斯拉 robotaxi 的独家线控转向供应商， 也是理想 L9 Livis 的供应商，这两款车型将于上半年量产交付。Cybercab 是特斯 拉实现 L4 级自动驾驶商业化的核心载体，旨在通过去除人为干预装置（方向盘、 踏板），通过纯视觉 FSD 方案与线控底盘的结合，实现车辆的完全解耦。特斯拉 的线控转向技术在 Cybertruck 上已实现量产，并将在 Cybercab 上进一步迭代。 其线控转向技术的应用不再是为了驾驶手感，而是为了适应无物理连接的自动控 制需求，结合车速与行驶状态控制车轮，反应速度远 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 59, based on a valuation reference of 18 times PE for 2026 [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is making significant progress in its emerging business, particularly in the humanoid robot joint module assembly sector, with a joint venture established in the U.S. alongside Green Harmonic [1][2]. - The establishment of a joint venture with Aisin Seiki and Toyota Tsusho aims to enhance the supply chain for aluminum body components in the North American market, targeting Japanese automotive clients [3]. - The year 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for the commercialization of the company's emerging businesses, indicating substantial future growth potential [3]. Financial Summary - Sales revenue is expected to grow from RMB 20.524 billion in FY 2023 to RMB 38.012 billion by FY 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% [5][10]. - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 1.903 billion in FY 2023 to RMB 4.153 billion by FY 2027, with a net profit margin improving from 9.3% to 10.9% over the same period [5][10]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to rise from 9.2% in FY 2023 to 14.2% by FY 2027, indicating enhanced profitability and efficiency [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 38 HKD [3][6]. Core Insights - The company, Leshu Shi (2698.HK), is a leading multinational hygiene products company focused on emerging markets such as Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia, specializing in baby diapers, pull-ups, sanitary napkins, and wet wipes [1][2]. - Revenue for the first four months of 2024 and 2025 was 320 million and 160 million USD, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 10.5% and 15.5%, while net profit was 95 million and 31 million USD, reflecting growth of 47.0% and 8.4% [1]. - The company is expected to see net profits of 106 million, 129 million, and 147 million USD for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.18, 0.21, and 0.24 USD [1][3]. Company Overview - Leshu Shi has established a broad sales network across over 30 countries in Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia, with 18 sales branches and over 2,800 wholesalers, distributors, supermarkets, and other retailers [2][17]. - The company has a strong local production presence in Africa with 8 factories, making it the largest manufacturer of hygiene products in the region [2][20]. Business Growth Factors - Future growth is anticipated from external factors such as demographic growth in emerging markets, ongoing consumption upgrades, and increased penetration of hygiene products [3][12]. - Internal growth factors include localized production creating a competitive moat, extensive sales channel coverage, continuous product category expansion, and replicating successful market experiences in other emerging markets [3][12]. Financial and Valuation Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 541 million, 627 million, and 711 million USD, with growth rates of 19.1%, 15.9%, and 13.4% respectively [4]. - The net profit margins are expected to remain stable, with net profit margins of 19.6%, 20.5%, and 20.7% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4]. - The company is valued at a 23x PE ratio for 2026, corresponding to a stock price of 38 HKD [3][4]. Market Characteristics - Emerging markets, particularly Africa, are characterized by strong economic growth, a young population driving consumption upgrades, and high import demand due to lower local industrialization [46][47]. - The African market is expected to see significant growth in the hygiene products sector, with the baby diaper market projected to grow from 2.037 billion USD in 2020 to 2.590 billion USD by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 6.2% [49][53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 26 [1][4][7] Core Insights - In January 2026, the company achieved sales of 270,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with export sales surging by 121% to 61,000 vehicles [1][2] - The growth in sales is attributed to strong performance across the Geely, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr brands, particularly driven by the Zeekr 9X model, which has become a leader in the large SUV segment [2][3] - The Zeekr 8X is set to launch in March 2026, featuring advanced technology and high performance, which is expected to further enhance the company's market position [2][3] Sales Performance - The breakdown of sales by brand shows Geely at 217,000 units, Lynk & Co at 29,000 units, and Zeekr at 24,000 units, with respective year-on-year growth rates of -3%, -4%, and +100% [2] - The Zeekr 9X has a transaction average price of HKD 538,000, indicating strong demand from customers upgrading from traditional luxury brands [2] Technological Advancements - The company is at the forefront of AI and intelligent driving technology, having introduced the WAM (World Action Model) at CES 2026, which enhances vehicle decision-making capabilities [3] - The G-ASD intelligent driving solution, developed in collaboration with Qianli Zhijia, aims to improve driving safety and efficiency through advanced AI [3] Financial Overview - Projected sales revenue is expected to grow from RMB 179.2 billion in FY 2023 to RMB 429.0 billion by FY 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 34% [4] - Net profit is forecasted to increase from RMB 5.3 billion in FY 2023 to RMB 25.1 billion in FY 2027, with a peak growth rate of 213% in FY 2024 [4] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 15.3% in FY 2023 to 17.4% in FY 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 2.3, representing a potential upside of 9% from the current stock price of HKD 2.08 [1][6]. Core Insights - The domestic milk powder business continues to face pressure due to a significant decline in the birth rate, with the 2025 birth population projected at 79.2 million, a 17% year-on-year decrease [1][2]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.89 billion for the first half of 2025, a 5.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 181 million, up 21.4% year-on-year, driven by overseas goat milk powder sales [2][3]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 41.9%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, with goat milk powder and cow milk powder margins also declining [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to RMB 2.5 billion, RMB 2.6 billion, and RMB 2.9 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of HKD 0.16, HKD 0.16, and HKD 0.18 [1][4]. - The company’s financial performance shows a decline in domestic goat milk powder revenue by 8.9% and cow milk powder revenue by 14.9% in the first half of 2025 [2][3]. - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies is estimated at 11.7x, with the company assigned a P/E of 13x due to its overseas business development [12]. Valuation Analysis - The DCF valuation method estimates a reasonable market value of HKD 2.4 based on a WACC of 7.2% and a short-term growth rate of 4% [12]. - The target price of HKD 2.3 is derived from a combination of comparable company analysis and DCF valuation, indicating a potential upside from the current market price [12].

焦炭行业动态点评 推荐标的：中国旭阳 1907.HK 中国旭阳是全球最大的独立焦炭生产商，2024 年焦炭产量达到 2380 万吨。 24 年公司位于印度尼西亚苏拉威西生产园区年产 480 万吨焦化项目中首 320 万吨焦炭产能已顺利点火及投产，国际市场的开拓进展顺利。25 年上半年焦 炭产能达到 2380 万吨。未来公司还有萍乡 160 万吨的项目在建，产能将会持 续落地。 2025 年上半年，中国旭阳实现总营业收入 205.49 亿元（人民币，下同，列明 除外），同比下降 18.5%；实现净利润 0.87 亿元，同比下降 34%，主要是受到 焦炭价格下跌的影响，焦炭利润承压。行业低谷仍实现盈利，公司通过降本增 效依然实现盈利，展现了优秀的成本管控能力。 当前公司市值为 113 亿港元，对应 MRQ 市净率为 0.83x，估值水平处于历史 极低位置。我们认为公司在成本管控方面有卓越的优势，尽管受到焦炭价格影 响业绩处于低谷期，但是未来随着环保政策的落地以及国内需求的抬升，有望 重新看到业绩增长。作为焦炭板块龙头企业，我们认为在当下市场对于能源相 关板块情绪逐渐高涨的背景下，可以将中国旭阳作为焦炭板块的首要布 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is 5.5 out of 10, based on operational performance, industry outlook, valuation, and market sentiment [8]. Core Insights - The company is a leading supplier in China focused on chemical new materials and gelatin, with over 95% of its revenue coming from the large chemical sector. It ranks as the second-largest in organic polymer modified materials and organic polymer composite materials in China, holding a market share of 2.5% [1]. - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with projected revenues of approximately RMB 134.1 billion, 174.4 billion, and 191.9 billion for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively. In the first ten months of 2025, revenue reached RMB 174.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was RMB 6.63 billion, 4.71 billion, and 6.85 billion respectively, with a significant increase of 40% year-on-year to RMB 7.12 billion in the first ten months of 2025 [1]. Company Overview - The company specializes in green petrochemical materials, including aromatic olefins, styrene, polystyrene, and organic polymer modified materials, which are applied in automotive, new energy, and home appliance sectors. It also operates in the health sector, producing gelatin, collagen, and hollow capsules [1]. - The global market for organic polymer modified materials and organic polymer composite materials is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6% from 2025 to 2029, with China projected to grow at 14.1% [2]. Advantages and Opportunities - The company has established a strong market position in the organic polymer modified materials sector through a vertically integrated model and strategic expansion into the health sector, creating a dual growth engine under its "one body, two wings" strategy [3]. - It has a robust research and development capability, a strong reputation, and long-term partnerships with leading enterprises, supported by a visionary and experienced management team [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong operational capabilities in IP management, with recent product innovations leading to increased sales potential for Q1 [1][2] - Recent stock buybacks, totaling over 300 million HKD, reflect the company's confidence in its long-term growth prospects and indicate that the stock price is at a relatively low level [1][3] - The company has successfully launched new product lines that have gained significant market traction, suggesting a robust ability to diversify its IP portfolio [2] Summary by Sections Product Performance - The Pucky Knock Knock series blind boxes have gained popularity, showcasing the company's innovative approach to IP [2] - The company has also launched successful series for the New Year and Valentine's Day, indicating strong consumer demand [2] Stock Buyback Activity - The company repurchased 1.4 million shares at an average price of 161 HKD and 500,000 shares at 173 HKD, demonstrating confidence in its stock valuation [3] - The stock buybacks are seen as a strategic move to bolster market confidence and counteract short-selling pressures [3] Market Outlook - The company has a strong presence in overseas markets, with approximately 200 stores globally, and continues to expand its footprint [4] - Future revenue projections indicate significant growth, with expected revenues of 373.98 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 186.8% [12] - The company's P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 20.70, 15.25, and 12.26 respectively, suggesting that the current valuation is relatively low for a high-growth company [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Netflix (NFLX.US) with a target price of $103 [6][20]. Core Insights - Netflix's Q4 2025 performance met expectations, with total revenue of $12.051 billion, representing an 18% year-over-year increase, driven by subscriber growth, price increases, and advertising revenue [2][10]. - The company ended the quarter with over 325 million subscribers, serving approximately 1 billion users [2]. - The acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) has transitioned to an all-cash deal, with potential synergies expected in content and subscriber offerings [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Q4 2025 operating profit increased by 30% to $2.957 billion, slightly exceeding market expectations, with an operating margin of 24.5% [2][10]. - Net profit for Q4 2025 was $2.419 billion, reflecting a 29% year-over-year increase, with a net profit margin of 20.1% [2][10]. - Content cash expenditure for Q4 2025 was $5.1 billion, up 11% year-over-year, with a net content asset value of $33 billion at the end of the quarter [2][13]. Acquisition Progress - The acquisition of WBD is valued at $82.7 billion, with WBD shareholders set to receive $27.75 in cash per share [3]. - Expected synergies from the acquisition include enhanced content library, expansion of subscription offerings, and cost savings of approximately $2-3 billion annually starting in the third year post-acquisition [3][4]. Guidance Update - For 2026, Netflix projects revenue between $50.738 billion and $51.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12%-14%, with advertising revenue expected to double [4][19]. - The company anticipates a free cash flow of $11 billion for 2026, a 9% increase year-over-year [4][19]. Valuation - The report adjusts the 2026 revenue and net profit forecasts down by 4% and 3% respectively, based on a 10-year DCF model [4][20]. - The target price of $103 corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.5x for 2026E and 32.4x for 2027E [4][20].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on undervalued, high-dividend, and quality asset power operators such as China Power (2380.HK) and Beijing Energy Clean Power (579.HK) [5][6] Core Insights - In 2025, the total electricity consumption in China reached 10.3682 trillion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, the first time surpassing 10 trillion kilowatt-hours globally [2][5] - The growth in electricity consumption was primarily driven by the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential electricity usage, contributing nearly half of the total growth [3][5] - Emerging and high-tech industries significantly boosted electricity consumption, with sectors like electric vehicle manufacturing and wind power equipment seeing growth rates exceeding 20% and 30% respectively [3][5] Summary by Sections Total Electricity Consumption - The total electricity consumption in 2025 was 10.3682 trillion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [2][5] - Breakdown by sectors: - Primary industry: 149.4 billion kilowatt-hours, up 9.9% - Secondary industry: 66,366 billion kilowatt-hours, up 3.7% - Tertiary industry: 19,942 billion kilowatt-hours, up 8.2% - Urban and rural residential consumption: 15,880 billion kilowatt-hours, up 6.3% [2][3] Industrial Power Generation - The industrial power generation in 2025 was 97,159 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [4][5] - December 2025 saw a slight increase of 0.1% in industrial power generation compared to the previous year [4] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights that the overall valuation of the Hong Kong power operator sector is low, with several stocks offering dividend yields exceeding or nearing 6% [5] - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in quality power operators like China Power (2380.HK) and Beijing Energy Clean Power (579.HK) due to their strong performance and favorable market conditions [5][6]