FICC研究框架及展望：以价为锚，把握周期中的确定性

Exchange Rate Outlook - The exchange rate is expected to show resilience, with a projected fluctuation range of 7.10 to 7.40 against the US dollar[51] - The offshore RMB funding rates have decreased, indicating reduced pressure on the exchange rate[47] - The USD/CNY exchange rate swap points are expected to fluctuate, with a six-month period showing a value of -1082 pips[48] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market has experienced a significant bull run, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields dropping to 1.85% and 2.05%, respectively, a decline of 70 basis points and 78 basis points within the year[53] - Government bond net financing reached CNY 4.15 trillion and local government bond net financing was CNY 6.7 trillion as of December 7, 2024[54] - The demand for bonds has increased among commercial banks and insurance institutions, with bond investments rising to 45.4% of insurance funds by the end of 2023[62] Gold Market Insights - The gold market may see a new allocation window, with potential for new highs due to favorable economic conditions[51] Risk Factors - The report highlights risks associated with external uncertainties, particularly regarding US-China relations and potential tariff impacts from the Trump administration[38] - The inversion of the US-China 10-year bond yield spread remains significant at 220 basis points, indicating ongoing market volatility[43]