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国际贸易数据点评(2024.11):汽车出口初现寒意,稳外贸促消费两手都要硬
Huajin Securities·2024-12-10 12:40

Export Trends - In November, exports (in USD) saw a significant year-on-year growth decline of 6.0 percentage points, dropping to 6.7% compared to October[2] - The contribution of automotive and parts exports to overall export growth decreased from +0.5% in October to -0.1% in November[2] - The contribution of ceramic steel and aluminum to total export growth fell by 0.5 percentage points from October[2] Import Trends - November imports (in USD) experienced a year-on-year decline of 1.6 percentage points, reaching -3.9%, marking the second-lowest in nearly a year[2] - The trade surplus in goods slightly expanded to $97.44 billion in November[2] - The decline in imports of intermediate goods for processing trade indicates a potential downward trend in export growth in the near future[2] Policy and Economic Outlook - The Biden administration's intensified measures against China's semiconductor industry are expected to gradually impact exports in the coming months[2] - The uncertainty surrounding the export outlook for 2025 is increasing due to potential new tariffs proposed by Trump and ongoing trade tensions[2] - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need to mitigate "external shocks," suggesting a focus on stabilizing domestic consumption to counteract external pressures[2]