计算机：美股跟踪：特斯拉深度专题（一）：AI终端王者之路

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue growth is driven by new vehicle models, and economies of scale are enhancing profit margins. In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of $96.773 billion (up 18.8% year-on-year), with a gross margin of 18.44% (down 7.35 percentage points) and a net profit of $14.997 billion (up 19.44% year-on-year) [2][5] - The automotive business remains the primary revenue source, with expectations of a 20-30% year-on-year sales growth in 2025, supported by the introduction of more affordable models [2][21] - The Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is expected to lead significant advancements, with the upcoming FSD v13 anticipated to surpass human safety levels by Q2 2025 [2][34] Summary by Sections 1. Key Business: Revenue Growth Driven by New Models and Scale Effects - The company has expanded from high-end models to include Model S/X, Model 3/Y, FSD, energy storage, solar products, and supercharging networks. The revenue from automotive sales is projected to continue growing, with a significant contribution from FSD and software services in the medium to long term [5][12] - The automotive business accounted for nearly 80% of total revenue in Q3 2024, with a revenue of $20.016 billion (up 2% year-on-year) and a gross margin of 20.11% [12][17] - The energy and solar business saw a revenue of $2.376 billion in Q3 2024 (up 52.4% year-on-year), with a gross margin reaching 30.5% [54] 2. Stock Price Review: Vehicle Business as the Foundation - The company's market capitalization has shown significant cyclical growth, with various phases from 2010 to 2024 reflecting different product launches and market conditions. For instance, the market cap increased from under $18 billion to nearly $350 billion during the Model S/X launch phase [61][63] - The introduction of the Model 3 led to a near doubling of market cap within six months, while the Model Y's production and rapid expansion in China contributed to a 17-fold increase in market cap from 2019 to early 2021 [70][72] - The recent surge in valuation is attributed to the generative AI and robotics concepts, with a 215% increase in market cap from 2023 to 2024 [61][62] 3. Related Stocks and Market Dynamics - Key players in the Tesla supply chain include companies like Shiyun Circuit, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Top Group, while the Huawei smart vehicle supply chain includes companies like Seres and Jianghuai Automobile [2] - The domestic autonomous driving supply chain features companies such as Desay SV, Wanma Technology, and others, indicating a robust ecosystem supporting the industry [2]