保险行业2025年度投资策略：转型添韧性，蝶变谱新篇

Industry Investment Rating - The insurance sector is rated positively for 2025, with expectations of continued improvement in fundamentals driven by supportive policies and market conditions [3][5] Core Views - In 2024, the insurance sector outperformed the broader market, with the insurance index rising by 41.6%, significantly outpacing the CSI 300 by 25.8 percentage points [3] - The sector benefited from supportive financial policies, a rebound in the equity market, and stabilizing long-term interest rates, leading to a 39.2% increase in the insurance index during the peak period [3] - For 2025, the sector is expected to maintain positive momentum, with policy tailwinds and improving fundamentals [5] 2024 Review Equity Market Performance - The insurance sector experienced four major upward trends in 2024, driven by policy support, improved asset-side performance, and strong NBV growth [10] - Key drivers included the "One Package" financial support policies and the Politburo meeting's positive signals, which boosted market sentiment [10] Liability Side: Life Insurance - Life insurance saw steady growth in premiums, with a 14.8% YoY increase in the first 10 months of 2024, driven by strong savings demand and renewal business [14] - The agent channel stabilized, with new business value (NBV) growing significantly due to improved value rates and product structure optimization [19] Liability Side: Property Insurance - Property insurance premiums grew steadily, with a 4.8% YoY increase in auto insurance and an 8.8% YoY increase in non-auto insurance, driven by policy support and economic recovery [22] - The combined ratio (COR) for major insurers showed divergence, with some benefiting from cost reductions while others faced pressure from natural disasters [28] Asset Side: Investment Performance - The rebound in the equity market significantly improved investment performance, with listed insurers' net profits increasing by 80.9% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 [32] 2025 Outlook Life Insurance - Interest rate cuts are expected to benefit liability cost control, with value rate optimization supporting NBV growth [4] - Traditional savings and dividend insurance products are expected to remain competitive, with a focus on "stable volume and rising prices" [4] Property Insurance - The property insurance sector is expected to maintain its growth momentum, with further optimization of the COR through cost reduction and efficiency improvements [4] Asset Side: Investment Strategy - Short-term focus on equity market elasticity, with long-term emphasis on asset-liability matching [5] - Insurers are expected to increase OCI stock allocations, which will help stabilize profit volatility and enhance dividend income [5] Investment Recommendations - Focus on insurers with strong transformation capabilities and resilient operations, such as China Pacific Insurance (A+H) and China Life Insurance (A+H) [6] - Property insurance leaders like China Property Insurance (2328.HK) are recommended for their strong underwriting profitability and reserve adequacy [6] Policy and Regulatory Developments - The new "National Ten Guidelines" for the insurance industry emphasize high-quality development, with a focus on risk prevention, service improvement, and regulatory oversight [37][38] - Regulatory adjustments to premium rates and the introduction of dynamic adjustment mechanisms are expected to help insurers manage liability costs and improve long-term asset-liability management [44][47] Product and Channel Strategies - Traditional savings insurance products with a 2.5% premium rate remain attractive, while dividend insurance products with a "2.0% guaranteed + floating" return structure are expected to gain market share [49][55] - The "One-to-Three" cooperation limit relaxation is expected to boost bancassurance channel growth, with insurers focusing on deepening partnerships and expanding product offerings [89]