交通运输仓储行业2025年度投资策略：看好海运长周期上行 聚焦红利资产配置价值

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the transportation and warehousing industry, particularly focusing on the long-term upward cycle of the shipping sector and the value of high-dividend assets [1][4] Core Views - The transportation industry's profitability improved in 2024, with a 6.6% YoY increase in net profit for the first three quarters, driven by recovery in sectors like airports, express delivery, and ports [4] - The shipping sector is expected to remain strong due to geopolitical tensions and mismatched shipbuilding cycles, with container and oil shipping showing long-term investment value [4] - Low interest rates and high-dividend assets are highlighted as key investment themes, with a focus on stable, high-dividend sectors like highways, railways, and ports [4][6] Geopolitical Impact on Trade and Shipping - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Red Sea crisis, have reshaped global trade routes, leading to increased shipping distances and costs, particularly for container shipping [4][38] - Despite accelerated capacity deployment in Q3 2024, container shipping spot rates remain higher than 2023 levels, with demand expected to be supported by inventory restocking in the US and Europe [4][41] Oil Shipping Market Dynamics - Oil shipping demand is expected to recover in 2025, driven by macroeconomic improvements and lower oil prices, while supply growth remains constrained due to low new contracts in 2020-2022 and aging VLCC fleets [6][72] - The mismatch between supply and demand in the oil shipping market is expected to persist, with VLCC supply growth lagging behind demand recovery, leading to a sustained increase in freight rates [6][85] High-Dividend Assets and State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - High-dividend sectors like highways, railways, and ports outperformed in 2024, driven by low interest rates and dividend yields [6][90] - State-owned enterprise reforms, including the inclusion of "one profit and five rates" in performance evaluations, are expected to enhance the profitability and market value of state-owned enterprises [96][101] Domestic and International Demand Recovery - Domestic passenger and freight demand in China showed strong recovery in 2024, with passenger traffic growing by 9.5% YoY and freight traffic by 3.4% YoY [28] - International passenger demand, particularly for tourism, saw significant growth, but the recovery of international air routes remains slow, with international air traffic still below 2019 levels [34][148] Shipping Capacity and Market Outlook - Global container shipping capacity is expected to grow by 10.2% in 2024, but new contracts signed in 2024 are lower than in 2021-2022, leading to a slowdown in capacity growth in 2025-2026 [51] - The long-term supply-demand balance in the container shipping market is expected to stabilize, with supply growth exceeding demand growth by 4.80%, 2.40%, and 0.40% in 2024-2026, respectively [51] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on oil and container shipping companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings, COSCO Shipping Energy, and China Merchants Energy Shipping due to geopolitical tensions and slow capacity growth [6][179] - High-dividend state-owned enterprises in the transportation sector, such as Shenzhen Expressway, Daqin Railway, and Shanghai International Port, are also highlighted for their long-term value [6][179] - Companies in the aviation and express delivery sectors, including Air China, Spring Airlines, and SF Holding, are recommended for their potential recovery in demand [6][179]