金属行业2025年投资策略：供稳需增，行情可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the metal industry [2] Core Views - Industrial metals demand is expected to rise due to monetary and fiscal policies, despite a decline in demand from the real estate sector [4][14] - Precious metals prices are projected to remain high and volatile in 2025, influenced by U.S. economic policies and inflation expectations [5] - Rare earth prices are anticipated to increase in 2025, driven by policy support and the expected growth in humanoid robotics [6][7] - Energy metals, particularly lithium and nickel, are expected to see price recoveries, with lithium prices stabilizing in a range of 75,000 to 85,000 CNY/ton [9][10] Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The real estate sector, which accounts for approximately 30% of copper and aluminum demand, is expected to see a decline of over 20% in new construction and completion areas in 2024, impacting industrial metals [4][14] - However, high growth in power grid investments, home appliances, and export demand is expected to offset this decline [4][14] - The current environment of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and supportive domestic monetary and fiscal policies is favorable for industrial metals demand, with prices likely to stabilize and rise [15][29] Precious Metals - The combination of U.S. fiscal and monetary policies is likely to stimulate economic growth, with inflation data influencing gold prices [5] - The long-term demand for gold is expected to rise due to geopolitical factors and central banks increasing their gold reserves [5] Rare Earths - The domestic rare earth mining and refining quotas are strictly controlled, with a projected increase in mining quotas of 5.9% in 2024 [6] - The demand for praseodymium and neodymium oxide is expected to grow significantly, with a supply-demand gap anticipated starting in 2025 [7] Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to stabilize in the range of 75,000 to 85,000 CNY/ton, with a potential for a bottom reversal in 2025 [9] - Nickel prices are projected to receive support from cost factors, with a return to industrial demand expected [10] Small Metals - Antimony prices are expected to recover as domestic and international price disparities are addressed [11] - Uranium demand is anticipated to rise due to the increasing significance of nuclear power in China's energy mix [12] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends a selection of companies across various sectors, including Zijin Mining, China Hongqiao, and others in the aluminum and rare earth sectors [12]