Impacts of Disasters in Conflict Settings

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry analyzed. Core Insights - The study investigates the differentiated economic impact of natural hazard-related disasters, specifically floods, in conflict versus non-conflict areas, revealing that conflicts amplify the negative impacts of such disasters on economic activity and recovery times [2][8][9]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The research aims to examine the impact of disasters and climate shocks on populations in conflict-affected regions, utilizing remote sensing technology to analyze the short-term effects of flooding events in Mozambique and Nigeria [8][10]. Methodology - A difference-in-difference econometric approach is employed, using satellite imagery of nightlight radiance and geospatial data on flood and conflict events to assess the economic impacts of floods in both conflict and non-conflict areas [17][39]. Results - Significant disparities in the effects of disasters and climate shocks are observed, with conflict-affected regions experiencing a more pronounced decline in economic activities compared to non-conflict areas [9][74]. - Specifically, conflict-affected areas experienced a 1.4% larger decline in economic activity one month after the floods compared to non-conflict areas [74]. Case Studies - The report focuses on two case studies: the 2019 tropical cyclones Idai and Kenneth in Mozambique and the July 2022 floods in Nigeria, highlighting the compounded crises faced by populations in conflict settings [48][49]. Data Sources - The analysis utilizes various data sources, including nightlight data from the VIIRS sensor, flood data from Sentinel-1 satellite, and conflict data from the ACLED database, to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of floods in conflict-affected areas [18][24][31].