Local Knowledge, Formal Evidence, and Policy Decisions

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Policymakers are willing to accept a program with a 5.0 percentage point lower estimated effect on enrollment rates if it is recommended by a local expert, indicating a strong preference for local knowledge over formal evidence [2][49]. - Programs supported by evidence from a different region are preferred over those supported by local evaluations only if the former has a 5.8 percentage point higher estimated impact, highlighting the importance of perceived relevance in evidence [2][49]. - The findings suggest that local knowledge significantly influences policy decisions, and researchers should aim to generate contextually relevant evidence to enhance the uptake of their findings by policymakers [49]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The increase in impact evaluations provides policymakers with more formal evidence, yet they often rely on local expert recommendations, which raises questions about the relative weight given to these sources of information [7]. - A discrete choice experiment was conducted with policymakers to assess how they value local expert advice compared to formal impact evaluation results [7]. Methodology - A survey was conducted with 190 policy professionals at World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank workshops, focusing on their preferences for program recommendations based on various attributes [14][17]. - The experiment involved comparing programs with different evaluation methods, locations, impacts, and recommendations from local experts [25][27]. Results - Policymakers showed a preference for programs with larger estimated treatment effects and those recommended by local experts, while policy practitioners favored programs with more precise impact evaluation results [31]. - The analysis revealed that policymakers would accept a program with a 5.0 percentage point lower impact if it was recommended by a local expert, indicating a significant trade-off in their decision-making process [39][49]. - The results suggest that local expert recommendations and impact evaluations from the same country are both valued, but they are not seen as substitutes [41][45]. Conclusion - The study concludes that local knowledge plays a crucial role in policy decisions, and researchers should strive to align their studies with the contexts relevant to policymakers to improve the likelihood of their findings being utilized [49].