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竞业达:智慧教育业务高速增长 AIGC业务逐步落地

Investment Rating - Buy/Initiate coverage [1] Core Views - The company's smart education business is experiencing rapid growth, and its AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content) business is gradually being implemented [1] - The company's profitability has improved, with Q3 performance turning positive year-over-year [3] - The company is increasing R&D investment and improving its sales network layout, with a focus on key areas such as industry large models, AIGC applications, experimental and practical teaching, and educational big data applications [3] - The company is accelerating the transformation of the education industry from informatization to digitalization, expanding its market beyond Beijing, and establishing six regional headquarters and over 20 branches and offices nationwide [3] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 302 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 22.02%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 24.34 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 1378% [3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 157 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 87.41%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 38.11 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7503% [3] - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 50.19%, an increase of 3.75 percentage points year-over-year, while the net profit margin was 7.95%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points year-over-year [3] - The company's R&D investment accounted for 12.96% of revenue, an increase of 8.31% year-over-year [3] - As of the end of September 2024, the company had orders on hand worth 420 million yuan [3] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve operating revenue of 556 million yuan, 669 million yuan, and 802 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 35.46%, 20.34%, and 19.92% [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 60.85 million yuan, 79.85 million yuan, and 105.64 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 501.25%, 31.23%, and 32.30% [3] - The company's EPS is expected to be 0.37 yuan, 0.48 yuan, and 0.64 yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 85X, 65X, and 49X [3] Stock Data - Total shares outstanding: 165 million shares, with 74 million shares in circulation [3] - Total market capitalization: 5.181 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 2.314 billion yuan [3] - The stock's highest and lowest prices in the past 12 months were 38.67 yuan and 17.14 yuan, respectively [3] Financial Ratios - The company's gross profit margin is expected to be 46.29%, 46.49%, and 47.31% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8] - The company's net profit margin is expected to be 10.94%, 11.93%, and 13.17% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8] - The company's ROE is expected to be 3.23%, 4.10%, and 5.22% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8]