商社板块25年策略：对消费乐观一些

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism towards consumption, highlighting three main investment themes: policy stimulation, marginal improvement in fundamentals, and low selling pressure from institutional allocations [2][3] - The report emphasizes the resilience and high growth potential of domestic consumption sectors, particularly in beauty and pet industries, while also addressing the challenges faced by the restaurant and retail sectors [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Improvement - The report notes a marginal improvement in the fundamentals of the industry, driven by policy support such as the Shanghai consumption voucher program, which positively impacts sectors like dining and hospitality [11][12] - The beauty and pet food sectors are highlighted as having strong growth potential, with the beauty sector expected to recover significantly in Q4 due to promotional activities [11][12] 2. Domestic Consumption: Preferred Emotional Consumption Sectors - The beauty sector is identified as a leader in the bull market, with domestic brands outperforming international ones during major sales events like Double Eleven [2][4] - The pet food market is described as being in a high-growth phase, with domestic brands capturing market share through upgrades and increased online presence [2][4] 3. External Consumption: Accelerated Store Openings and Sustained High Prosperity in Cross-Border E-commerce - Despite short-term concerns over tariffs, the long-term outlook for overseas markets remains positive, with expectations of increased consumer spending during peak sales seasons [3][4] - Leading companies are adapting to tariff impacts through price adjustments and strategic shifts in export markets [3] 4. Recovery from Cyclical Bottom: Policy and Operational Adjustments - The restaurant sector is currently at a cyclical low, with expectations of gradual recovery in 2024, supported by consumer confidence from stimulus measures [4] - The retail sector is undergoing transformations, with major players adapting to new market conditions and exploring innovative store formats [4][5]