国信证券：晨会纪要-20241211

Key Insights - The report highlights the recovery and growth potential of Haidilao (06862.HK), with expectations for improved same-store sales and new store openings in 2025, alongside the accelerated development of its barbecue brand [4][4][4] - The macroeconomic environment shows resilience in export growth, with November exports increasing by 6.7% year-on-year, while imports declined by 3.9%, resulting in a trade surplus of $97.44 billion [5][7][9] - The banking sector's wealth management products have stabilized at around 30 trillion yuan, with expectations for growth to 32-33 trillion yuan in the coming year, driven by retail and corporate client demand [9][11][11] Company and Industry Analysis Haidilao - Haidilao has undergone significant operational improvements since facing challenges in 2021, with a net profit of 4.499 billion yuan in 2023, marking a recovery from a loss of 4.16 billion yuan in 2021 [4][4] - The company has initiated the "Red Pomegranate Plan" to foster the development of new restaurant brands, with a focus on its barbecue brand, which has already opened 12 locations and aims for 100-200 by 2025-2026 [4][4] - The average customer spending has shown signs of recovery, reaching approximately 100 yuan, with a stable table turnover rate of 4.2 times as of mid-2024 [4][4] Banking Industry - The banking wealth management sector has seen a slight increase in product scale, with a total of 29.8 trillion yuan in November, reflecting a 0.5 trillion yuan increase from the previous month [9][11] - The report anticipates continued growth in the banking wealth management sector, driven by retail and corporate clients, with a projected growth rate of 7-8% [11][11] - Regulatory changes are expected to enhance product classification and information disclosure, promoting high-quality development indicators in the wealth management industry [11][11] Light Industry and Retail - The North American online retail market showed strong performance during the Black Friday and Cyber Week, with a total online retail sales of $41.1 billion, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year increase [13][13] - The report notes that the expansion of consumer subsidies for electronics in regions like Jiangsu and Guizhou is expected to boost demand for 3C products, positively impacting the supply chain [13][13] - The furniture retail sector in the U.S. has shown signs of recovery, with a 1.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales for October, indicating a potential rebound in consumer spending [13][13]