钢铁行业周报：黑色商品价格震荡，关注宏观政策定调

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry, with specific companies such as Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Hebei Steel Resources, Jiuli Special Materials, and Yongjin Co. receiving "Buy" ratings [1][3]. Core Insights - The black commodity prices are experiencing fluctuations, with macroeconomic policy expectations being the focal point of market dynamics. The steel price is influenced by the upcoming central economic work conference, and while the short-term outlook lacks strong industrial drivers for significant price increases, the mid-term macroeconomic policy shift suggests limited downside risk for black commodities [3][8]. - The report highlights that the steel industry is currently at a profitability low point, and with potential macroeconomic stimulus and supply-side policy tightening, there is significant upside potential for the sector. Key stocks to watch include Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and Hualing Steel [3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - The steel sector has risen by 5.61%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.28 percentage points [18]. - Notable stock performances include Zhongnan Co. with a weekly increase of 28.89% and Ma Steel with 19.57% [18]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 National Steel Prices and Iron Ore Inventory - National steel prices have generally increased, with rebar prices averaging 3,234 CNY/ton in Beijing, down by 12 CNY/ton week-on-week [19]. - The Platts price index has shown a recovery, while iron ore inventories have decreased, indicating a tightening supply [23]. 2.2 Production and Demand Trends - The operating rate of blast furnaces has decreased to 81.47%, with a week-on-week decline of 0.15 percentage points [39]. - The average weekly transaction volume of construction steel was 115,100 tons, showing a slight increase [39]. 3. Industry Dynamics 3.1 Key Industry News - The Rio Tinto Simandou project is expected to commence production in 2025, with significant progress in infrastructure development [50]. - The real estate market has seen a surge in transaction volumes, with several cities reporting record sales in November [50]. 3.2 Company Announcements - Baodi Mining announced plans to reduce its stake by up to 0.74% through a public offering [51].