房地产专题报告：历史上的超常规政策是怎样的？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [9]. Core Insights - Compared to historical policy responses, the current policy strength in China has significant room for improvement, with the recent Politburo meeting indicating a shift towards unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments [7]. - The industry is expected to approach a recovery phase by 2025, contingent on the reduction of benchmark interest rates, mortgage rates, and the restoration of inflation expectations [7]. - The core focus is on whether actual mortgage rates can quickly decline from their current relatively high levels towards zero [7]. Summary by Sections Historical Policy Analysis - In the 2008 cycle, macroeconomic policies included a combination of measures to restore inflation expectations, with benchmark interest rates cut by 189 basis points from September to December 2008, and the average mortgage rate dropping to a discount of 73% compared to the benchmark [5]. - The 2014-2016 cycle saw large-scale monetary compensation for urban renewal, with benchmark interest rates reduced by 165 basis points and the average mortgage rate reaching near zero [6]. Current Policy Environment - The current conventional policy tools have surpassed historical frameworks, yet there remains a need for unconventional policy measures to stimulate the market [7]. - The nominal down payment ratio and mortgage rates have reached historical lows, with many restrictive measures nearing cancellation, but the focus remains on internal market recovery dynamics [7]. Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus should be on elasticity, while medium to long-term attention should be directed towards high-quality assets [7]. - Stocks are anticipated to reflect optimistic expectations, with potentially greater short-term elasticity in undervalued state-owned enterprises and local government financing vehicles [7].