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12月政治局会议点评:政策基调变化,明年发力可期
Guoyuan Securities·2024-12-11 02:09

Group 1 - The report highlights a shift in policy tone, indicating a more proactive approach to economic management, with expectations for significant policy support in 2025 [5][6]. - The meeting emphasized the importance of stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, reflecting a higher requirement for the smooth operation of these sectors [8][10]. - The report anticipates a series of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and enhancing consumption, addressing current demand deficiencies [6][10]. Group 2 - The macroeconomic policy will be more active and effective, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and improving investment efficiency [6][10]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be more aggressive, with an emphasis on increasing government spending and utilizing special bonds effectively [6][10]. - Monetary policy is projected to be moderately loose, potentially leading to interest rate cuts and increased liquidity through new tools [6][10]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the real estate market has shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase in new housing transactions, marking a positive shift after a prolonged decline [8][10]. - The capital market is also expected to benefit from policy support, with a focus on attracting long-term funds and enhancing market stability [8][10]. - The emphasis on technological innovation and comprehensive reform is seen as a pathway to developing new productive forces, which will drive future economic growth [9][10].