城投年度策略（2024-12-11）：2025年，城投怎么看？

Market Overview - 2024 was a credit bull market with "asset shortage" driving the continuous decline in yield spreads of urban investment bonds (UIBs), reaching extreme lows in mid-year[3] - The net financing scale of UIBs is expected to be between 200-300 billion yuan in 2025, indicating increased scarcity of UIBs[4] Policy Impact - Debt resolution policies in 2024, including Document No. 14, 134, and 150, significantly compressed UIB yield spreads, with policy support extended to mid-2027[6] - The bond market experienced sustained warmth under the "package of debt resolution policies," with local governments prioritizing the protection of standard bonds[6] Regional Focus - Eastern regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui are recommended for investment, particularly at the municipal and county levels[7] - Central regions should focus on cities and counties with manageable debt pressures, while key areas should target high-quality issuers[7] Risk and Valuation - Credit risk for UIBs remains low in 2025, supported by extended policy timelines and market confidence in standard bonds[6] - Valuation differentiation is unlikely, with UIB yields more influenced by the overall credit bond market trends[6] Investment Strategy - Mainstream bottom assets can be extended to 5Y AA(2) and 2Y AA- UIBs, as their yields are currently comparable and represent market preferences[5] - Short-duration strategies are preferred initially, with potential for extending duration as market conditions stabilize[59]