国防军工行业专题研究：否极泰来，圆满收官

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating of "Market Perform" for the defense and military industry, indicating a neutral outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The defense and military industry is expected to experience a turnaround as it approaches the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with significant investment opportunities identified in core enterprises and emerging technologies [5][6][7]. - The industry has shown a year-to-date increase of 10.05% as of December 9, 2024, but has underperformed the CSI 300 index by 5.56 percentage points, ranking 15th among 31 sectors [4][35]. - The report highlights a notable decline in overall performance for the industry in the third quarter of 2024, with a 5.23% drop in revenue and a 27.87% decrease in net profit year-on-year [5][54]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The defense and military industry index has shown a fluctuating upward trend in 2024, but overall performance has lagged behind the CSI 300 index [33]. - As of December 9, 2024, the industry index stands at a price-to-earnings ratio of 69.8, which is above the median of the past ten years [40]. 2. Third Quarter Performance - The industry reported total revenue of 376.68 billion, reflecting a 5.23% year-on-year decline, and a net profit of 21.37 billion, down 27.87% [54]. - Among various segments, only the maritime equipment sector showed positive growth, with a revenue increase of 15.07% [62]. 3. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: leading enterprises within the military supply chain, emerging technologies in modern warfare such as drones and missiles, and potential recovery in the upstream supply chain [6][7][8]. - The report emphasizes that 2025 is expected to be a pivotal year for the military industry, marking a significant recovery phase [5].