黄金周报：美联储打压降息预期，黄金震荡走弱

Market Overview - The market shows divergence regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, leading to a decline in gold prices. As of December 6, the Shanghai gold futures price fell by 0.46% to 615.94 CNY/g, while COMEX gold futures dropped by 0.71% to 2654.90 USD/oz[1] - The cautious stance of the Federal Reserve, particularly comments from Powell indicating a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy, supports a high dollar and suppresses gold prices[1] Price Movements - Last week, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 615.94 CNY/g, down 2.86 CNY/g from the previous week, and COMEX gold futures closed at 2654.90 USD/oz, down 19.0 USD/oz[4] - Gold T+D spot prices decreased by 0.19% to 613.79 CNY/g, and London gold spot prices fell by 0.67% to 2632.66 USD/oz[1] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks, including unrest in South Korea and France, and the worsening situation in Syria, are expected to support gold prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets[2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. November CPI data is anticipated to show a slight rebound due to a low base from the previous year, which may dampen market expectations for interest rate cuts and limit gold's upward potential[2] - The U.S. November non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%[28] ETF Holdings and Trading Volume - Global SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 6.61 tons to 871.94 tons, indicating a decline in investor interest[16] - The total trading volume for gold T+D fell significantly by 28.05% to 130,404 kg last week[16] Futures Market Analysis - The international gold basis (spot-futures) rose slightly to 3.90 USD/oz, while the Shanghai gold basis improved to -1.57 CNY/g[9] - The gold futures market saw a slight increase in net long positions, with a minor drop in short positions, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors[16]