宏观研究：11月制造业PMI指数扩张步伐小幅提升

Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for November is 50.3%, maintaining above 50 for two consecutive months, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from October[2] - The production index in November is 52.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[6] - New orders index has returned to expansion at 50.8%, marking the first increase since May 2024, rising by 0.8 percentage points[12] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The new orders minus finished goods inventory index stands at 3.4%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating a high level over the past year[3] - The procurement quantity index is at 51.0%, increasing by 1.7 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion for the first time since May 2024[18] - The import index is at 47.3%, up 0.3 percentage points, reflecting weaker external demand compared to domestic demand[12] Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, with the construction sector falling to 49.7%, indicating contraction for the first time since March 2020[4] - The comprehensive PMI output index remains stable at 50.8%, indicating overall expansion in business activities[12] Inventory and Pricing Trends - Finished goods inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.5 percentage points, while raw materials inventory remains steady at 48.2%[18] - The factory price index is at 47.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating insufficient effective demand despite new orders returning to expansion[20] - The difference between factory price index and raw material purchase price index is -2.1%, indicating a potential improvement in manufacturing profits, although still at a low level[20] Business Size Analysis - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.9%, down 0.6 percentage points, while medium enterprises are at 50.0%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating slight improvement[21] - Small enterprises show a significant recovery with a PMI of 49.1%, up 1.6 percentage points, although still in contraction[21]