6 证券研究报告 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 3 页 点评报告 2026 年 2 月 26 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、产业综合组： 新闻称美国政府将于 3 月 4 日召集微软、Anthropic 等全球领先的数据中心与人 工智能企业参会，正式签署一项协议，以保护消费者免受不断上涨的电力成本 影响。特朗普当时表示，他已要求大型科技企业自建发电厂，为快速扩张的数 据中心及其他人工智能基础设施供电。我们认为目前能较快解决美国电力问题 的方法主要就是燃气轮机发电和增加储能设施，而相关设施的供应美国公司的 产能已经超饱和，因此我们看好国内电力设备和储能设备的需求前景。 2 月 25 日津巴布韦矿业部宣布立即暂停所有原矿及锂精矿出口(含在途货物)， 未来仅持有效采矿权及获批选矿厂的企业具备出口资格，禁止代理及第三方贸 易商出口，原则上计划 2027 年禁止精矿出口，违规者(如续用过期待办)将吊销 出口许可乃至采矿权。目前全球的锂矿处于供求略微紧平衡的状态，津巴布韦 作为中国较大的一个海外锂矿供应地，禁止锂矿 ...

Group 1: AI Industry Insights - Anthropic launched "Cowork & Plugins for the Enterprise," an AI toolkit that integrates with popular office software like Microsoft Excel, PowerPoint, and Slack, allowing users to perform tasks without switching applications [3] - The tool has demonstrated significant efficiency improvements, such as reducing the time to write a 300-page clinical research report from months to just 10 minutes [3] - The report emphasizes that while AI applications are advancing, they are still in the exploratory phase and not yet at the stage of replacing professional software, indicating a positive outlook for rapid growth in the AI industry [3] Group 2: Tongwei Co., Ltd. Developments - Tongwei Co., Ltd. announced plans to acquire 100% of Qinghai Lihua Qingneng Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, which will enhance its position in the polysilicon market [4] - Lihua Qingneng has established a production capacity of 150,000 to 200,000 tons of polysilicon, ranking sixth in the industry with low production costs due to new equipment [4] - The report suggests that the current model of industry consolidation is shifting back to individual company integration, which may lower the difficulty of industry consolidation and accelerate the exit of outdated capacities and companies [4] Group 3: Spotify Performance - Spotify reported a significant increase in monthly active users (MAU), surpassing 750 million with a net addition of 38 million in Q4 2025, while paid users reached 290 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [6] - The company's gross margin improved to 33.1%, and operating profit margin reached 15.5%, indicating a notable enhancement in profitability driven by subscription structure optimization and cost dilution [6] - Looking ahead to Q1 2026, Spotify maintains an optimistic outlook, expecting continued growth in MAU and paid users, with revenue projected at €4.5 billion, a 15% year-on-year increase excluding currency effects [6]

6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2026 年 2 月 10 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、产业综合组： 台湾的成熟制程代工厂世界先进，日前在法说会上表示下游出现需求转强、供 需转紧的情况。因此，有新闻报道该公司规划今年 4 月起调涨部分产品代工报 价，涨幅达 15%。除此外，台湾的力积电日前表示，AI 服务器带动电源管理 IC 与相关功率元件需求增温，加上部分 8 英寸无尘室改装供先进封装设备使用， 产能已难以满足客户需求，规划 3 月调升 8 英寸晶圆代工价格；台湾联电也开 始强调定价策略维持纪律，公司估计 2026 年成熟制程市场仍有 1%至 3%的温和 成长。因此从台湾厂商集体释放的信息趋势看，半导体代工涨价的概率较高， 有利于相关行业盈利的持续改善。 2 月 10 日谷歌母公司 Alphabet Inc 计划发行美元债券筹 200 亿美元，融资规模 超过了此前预期的 150 亿美元，此次发行吸引了超过 1000 亿美元的认购，成为 企业债发行史上需求最强劲的案例之一。据知情人士透露，此次发行中期限最 长的部分--2066 年到期的债券--定价已从早前的较美 ...

Group 1: Passive Components Industry - The largest passive component manufacturer, Murata Manufacturing, reported a 12.2% increase in capacitor revenue to 239.1 billion JPY for Q3 2025, and a 9.5% increase in inductor/EMI filter revenue to 56.4 billion JPY. Capacitor orders reached 268.1 billion JPY, a year-on-year increase of 29.4% [2] - The company noted that meeting the demand for electronic components, particularly MLCCs in the AI server sector, will be a significant challenge in 2026. While there are no discussions on price increases, the company will consider market conditions carefully [2] - The demand for passive components globally has accelerated, and domestic companies in this sector have a PE valuation of 30-40 times, which is relatively low compared to other segments of the electronics supply chain, indicating strong investment potential in the passive components industry [2] Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - Tesla has achieved large-scale production of dry electrode technology, marking a transition from concept validation to practical manufacturing feasibility. The advantages of dry electrodes include reduced energy consumption and lower complexity in equipment and facilities [6] - The core of the dry electrode process is the roll-to-roll film forming equipment, with a value of approximately 50,000 USD per GWh, significantly higher than traditional wet processes. This development is expected to enhance the willingness of leading domestic battery manufacturers and equipment suppliers to invest in dry processes [6] - Long-term, this technology could become a fundamental process for the engineering of solid-state batteries, lowering the barriers to industrialization in this field [6] Group 3: Consumer Sector - Longping High-Tech forecasts a net profit of 130 to 190 million CNY for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14% to 67%, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses. The improvement is largely attributed to the Brazilian operations transitioning from a drag to a contributor to profit [8] - The company has improved its gross margin by approximately 8 percentage points through optimized marketing and cost reduction strategies, while financial expenses have decreased by over 90% due to better management of local loans [8] - Looking ahead, management expects the Brazilian business to maintain its improvements, aiming for a complete turnaround in 2026, while domestic operations are expected to see stable revenue and profit growth amid industry adjustments [8] Group 4: Alcohol Industry - The management of Jinshiyuan indicated that despite a 9-day holiday boost, the market remains cautious, with sales expected to decline compared to the previous year. The overall trend is characterized by "weak volume and stable prices" [9] - Inventory levels are manageable, but pressure is concentrated among distributors, with low willingness to stock and a decrease in consumption intensity. The recovery in consumption is cautious and pragmatic, with fewer banquet tables and lower spending per table [9] - For 2026, management anticipates a negative year-on-year growth in industry sales volume for Q1, indicating a gradual recovery rather than a rapid rebound. The outlook suggests a "weak recovery with increasing differentiation" within the industry, favoring leading companies [9]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - January Manufacturing PMI in China is 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a shift from expansion to contraction[2] - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.5 percentage points; medium enterprises at 48.7%, down 1.1 percentage points; and small enterprises at 47.4%, down 1.2 percentage points, showing a divergence in performance[2] - The production index is at 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points, remaining above 50% for two consecutive months[7] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - New orders index is at 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, while new export orders are at 47.8%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating weak demand[2] - The import index is at 47.3%, up 0.3 percentage points, suggesting a slight recovery in imports[2] - The inventory-sales ratio is 1.08, up from 1.05 in December, indicating a slowdown in destocking[3] Group 3: Price and Profitability Indicators - The factory price index is at 50.6%, up 1.7 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion territory[3] - The main raw material purchase price index is at 56.1%, up 3 percentage points, indicating rising input costs[3] - Profitability index is at -5.5%, down 1.3 percentage points, indicating that factory prices are not keeping pace with raw material costs, leading to declining profit levels[19] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - January Non-Manufacturing PMI is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, marking a new low for 2023[4] - The services sector PMI is at 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points, while the construction sector PMI is at 48.8%, down 4 percentage points, indicating significant contraction[4] Group 5: Employment and Logistics - Employment index is at 48.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating a contraction in employment conditions[21] - Supplier delivery time index is at 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, but still above the neutral mark, indicating faster delivery times[21]

6 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济组： 事件 1： 1 月 30 日（星期五）财政部公布 2025 年 1-12 月财政收支数据。 评论 1： 证券研究报告 点评报告 2026 年 2 月 2 日 1-12 月全国一般公共财政收入同比为-1.7%，较 1-11 月回落 2.5 个百分点，其 中中央回落 5.5 个百分点至-6.5%，地方回升 0.2 个百分点同比为 2.4%；而一般 公共财政支出同比为 1.0%，较 1-11 月回落 0.4 个百分点，其中中央回落 0.5 个百分点至 5.7%，地方回落 0.4 个百分点至 0.2%。地方财政支出近两个月的回 落速度较快，9 月为 2.4%。 政府性基金收入则同样表现不佳，1-12 月同比为-7%，较 1-11 月回落 2.1 个百 分点，其中地方国有土地使用权出让收入同比为-14.7%，较 1-11 月回落 4 个百 分点；1-12 月政府性基金支出增速为 11.3%，较 1-11 月回落 2.4 个百分点。 2025 年 1-12 月全国税收收入同比增速为 0.8%，较 1-11 月回落 1 个百分点， ...

Group 1: Company Performance - Shengyi Technology (生益科技) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.25 to 3.45 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 87% to 98%. Shengyi Electronics (生益电子) anticipates a net profit of approximately 1.44 to 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 331.03% to 355.88% [4] - Wei Ce Technology (伟测科技) forecasts a net profit of around 300 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 133.96%. The growth is driven by the penetration of AI and automotive electronics, as well as the recovery in consumer electronics [4] - Jindan Technology (金丹科技) projects a net profit of 96 to 138 million yuan for 2025, indicating a significant year-on-year growth of 156% to 268%. The growth is attributed to the successful launch of a 50,000-ton lactic acid expansion project and a decrease in procurement costs [10] - Hengfeng Paper (恒丰纸业) anticipates a net profit of 178 to 215 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54% to 86%. The growth is primarily due to the successful launch of a new production line and breakthroughs in overseas markets [11] - Jieya Co. (洁雅股份) expects a net profit of 72 to 88 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 270% to 352%. The growth is driven by increased orders from major international clients and an improved business structure [12] Group 2: Industry Trends - The European Automobile Manufacturers Association reported that pure electric vehicle sales in the EU surged by 51% year-on-year to 217,898 units in December 2025, surpassing gasoline vehicles for the first time. The market share reached 22.6% [7] - In December, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 40 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 43% but an increase of 84% month-on-month. The cumulative installed capacity for the year reached 315 GW, a year-on-year increase of 14% [8] - The snack food sector, represented by Wancheng Group (万辰集团), is expected to see a net profit of 1.23 to 1.4 billion yuan for 2025, driven by the continuous growth of the bulk snack business and an increase in store numbers to approximately 19,000 [14]

Macro Economic Group - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 3.5-3.75%, aligning with market expectations, marking the first pause in rate cuts since September of the previous year [5] - The statement from the Fed changed its description of economic activity from "moderate expansion" to "steady expansion," indicating a more optimistic view on the labor market and inflation [5] - Powell emphasized that inflation risks have somewhat diminished and that the impact of tariffs on the economy is expected to dissipate by mid-2026 [6] Industry Comprehensive Group - Industrial Fulian (601138.SH) projected a net profit of 35.1 to 35.7 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51% to 54%, driven by a significant rise in cloud server and AI server revenues [9] - Ailis (688578.SH) expects a revenue increase of 46.15% for 2025, with net profit projected at 2.15 billion yuan, supported by strong demand for its third-generation EGFR-TKI inhibitor [10] - True Love Home anticipates a net profit of 202 to 296 million yuan for 2025, a substantial increase attributed to one-time non-recurring gains from land compensation [14] - Yiming Foods forecasts a net profit of 47 to 55 million yuan for 2025, with significant growth driven by the recovery of its core milk bar business and expansion into B-end channels [15] - Aofei Entertainment expects a net profit of 6 to 8 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround due to improved cost control and recovery in overseas sales [16] Advanced Manufacturing Group - The pickup market sold 52,000 units in December 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, with total sales for the year reaching 589,000 units, up 11.8% [12] - Exports of pickups in December 2025 reached 28,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12%, contributing significantly to overall market growth [12] - The new energy pickup segment saw a cumulative increase of 243% for the year, indicating strong growth potential driven by external demand and product upgrades [12]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant growth, with companies like 瑞芯微 (603893.SH) forecasting a revenue increase of 39.88% to 41.15% in 2025, reaching approximately 43.9 billion to 44.3 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 71.97% to 85.42% [2] - The medical testing industry, represented by 九安医疗 (002432.SZ), anticipates a net profit of approximately 20.2 billion to 23.5 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.05% to 40.83% [3] - The advanced manufacturing sector, particularly in the lithium battery market, is expected to see a net profit increase of 424.29% to 529.15% in 2025, driven by strong demand in the energy storage field and recovery in the overall market [6] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - 瑞芯微 (603893.SH) is expected to achieve a fourth-quarter revenue of approximately 12.65 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 29.6%, although this growth rate is lower than the first three quarters due to supply chain challenges [2] - 九安医疗 (002432.SZ) has established a strong brand presence in North America through its COVID-19 rapid testing kits, which has allowed it to maintain high sales volumes in respiratory disease rapid testing kits and home healthcare devices post-pandemic [3] - 先导智能's (not explicitly named in the summary) projected net profit of 15 billion to 18 billion yuan in 2025 indicates a robust recovery in the lithium battery sector, marking a transition from inventory cycles to capital expenditure cycles [6] Group 3: Market Trends - The domestic passenger car market in China is projected to have a total sales volume of 23.32 million units in 2025, showing a slight decline of 0.5% year-on-year, with significant regional disparities in sales performance [7] - The sales concentration is shifting towards core cities with high population density and active consumer demand, indicating that future growth in the automotive sector may be highly localized [7] - 百洋股份 anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 41 to 52 million yuan in 2025, driven by improved feed business pricing and resilient export performance in food processing [9]

Group 1: AI Industry Insights - Baidu and Tencent are launching cash red envelope promotions to boost AI application usage during the Spring Festival, with Baidu offering 500 million yuan and Tencent 1 billion yuan in total rewards, potentially increasing AI application frequency across the industry [2] - The NAND flash memory prices have surged over 100% in Q1 2026, exceeding market expectations, as Samsung Electronics has completed supply contract negotiations, indicating a strong recovery in the storage industry [3] Group 2: Company Performance Forecasts - Sitway (688213.SH) expects 2025 revenue between 8.8 billion to 9.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47% to 54%, with net profit projected at approximately 980 million to 1.03 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 149% to 162% [4] - Bailong Chuangyuan reported a 2025 revenue of 1.379 billion yuan, up 19.75% year-on-year, and a net profit of 366 million yuan, up 48.94%, driven by product structure optimization and high-margin product prioritization [10] - Qingsong Co. forecasts 2025 revenue of about 2.22 billion yuan, a 14% increase, with net profit expected to grow 1.4 to 2 times, attributed to a strategic focus on high-margin cosmetics ODM business [11] - Rongjie Health anticipates a net profit of 75 to 88 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 60% to 88%, driven by the strong performance of health products, particularly high-margin infrared therapy sauna rooms [12]