证券研究报告 行业研究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 受益供给侧管理强化 稀土景气度将持续回升 核[心T观ab点le：_Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 风险提示：政策变化、管制政策施行力度、海外产能变化等。 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 7 页 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 自中国将关键矿物出口管制作为应对美国对中国高科技限制的应对手段以 来，中国已对镓、锗、锑、钨、中重稀土等中国在全球供应中占比较大的矿 物进行了出口管制。目前看，稀土管制对美国对华贸易政策的影响最大，中 美伦敦贸易会谈中，美方将中国加大稀土出口作为谈判的一个重要条件，并 且伦敦会谈后在中国放宽部分对美稀土出口后，美国也在 7 月中旬取消了 Nvida 产 H20 和 AMD 产 AI 芯片对华出口限制，以及民用客机大型发动机和乙 烷等对华的出口禁令。可见中国的关键矿物出口管制是有效的对美反制手段。 分析师：郭强 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 在中国启动中重稀土的出口管制后，海外商品价格评估机构阿格斯 5 月 6 日 的数据显示，欧洲中重稀土 99.5%含量氧化镝 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 受益供给侧管理强化 稀土景气度将持续回升 核[心T观ab点le：_Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 风险提示：政策变化、管制政策施行力度、海外产能变化等。 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 7 页 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 自中国将关键矿物出口管制作为应对美国对中国高科技限制的应对手段以 来，中国已对镓、锗、锑、钨、中重稀土等中国在全球供应中占比较大的矿 物进行了出口管制。目前看，稀土管制对美国对华贸易政策的影响最大，中 美伦敦贸易会谈中，美方将中国加大稀土出口作为谈判的一个重要条件，并 且伦敦会谈后在中国放宽部分对美稀土出口后，美国也在 7 月中旬取消了 Nvida 产 H20 和 AMD 产 AI 芯片对华出口限制，以及民用客机大型发动机和乙 烷等对华的出口禁令。可见中国的关键矿物出口管制是有效的对美反制手段。 分析师：郭强 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 在中国启动中重稀土的出口管制后，海外商品价格评估机构阿格斯 5 月 6 日 的数据显示，欧洲中重稀土 99.5%含量氧化镝 ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 7 月 22 日 晨会纪要 一、产业综合组： 格科微，主要从事单芯片 CIS 芯片业务，公布了 2025 年上半年的营业收入增长情 况，实现营业收入 34.11 亿元-38.09 亿元， 同比增长 22.27%-36.51%，按收入中 值计算，二季度单季度收入 20.75 亿，创历史新高，同比增长 38.3%。业绩增长主 要原因在于公司首创的单芯片高像素芯片集成技术得到市场的进一步认可， 全面 覆盖品牌客户，持续提升高像素产品的市场占有率。另外主要从事 CIS 芯片代工的 晶合集成也公布了 2025 年上半年的业绩预告，预计 2025 年半年度实现营业收入 507,000 万元至 532,000 万元，同比增长 15.29%至 20.97%。预计 2025 年半年度实 现归母净利润 26,000 万元到 39,000 万元， 同比增长 39.04%到 108.55%。结合 7 月 16 日公布业绩预告的 CIS 芯片公司思特威预计上半年净利润中值 3.9 亿，同比 增长 160%分析，国内 CIS 芯片在高端市场的占有率在进一步提升，考虑到国内 CIS 芯片公司收入与全球 ...

晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 7 月 21 日 一、产业综合组： 分析师：刘笑瑜 本周末投资总额高达 1.2 万亿的雅鲁藏布江水电站项目正式获批，预计将该对西藏 地区的民爆、水泥等行业构成持续利好。周末，美国参议院高票通过了稳定币法案， 预计将对市场数字稳定币主题行情构成利好。由于前期上述相关主题的股票都已经 有较长时间的上涨，因此本次上述消息的正式落地，可能会带来相关主题行情的调 整。目前上证指数和沪深 300 指数相继创年内新高，市场对后续走势的分歧加大， 如果在上述两消息的刺激下，相关主题行情能继续上涨，则代表中小盘的中证 1000 指数大概率也能创年内新高，将有利于下半年上涨行情的持续。 7 月 18 日稀土行业协会公布的稀土价格指数为 192.24 点，创下年内新高。今年 1~6 月国内稀土价格指数总体在 160~180 点震荡，7 月份则从 180 点快速上涨到 192 点， 环比涨幅超过 6%，稀土价格呈现加速上涨趋势。我们认为，今年中国以稀土出口 管制对抗美国的出口限制，从近期中美谈判贸易战缓和、美国重新放开英伟达 ...

证券研究报告 解读： 尽管特朗普的关税政策已开始产生影响，但美国消费者似乎仍在积极消费。美国 6 月份零售销售环比增长 0.6%，由负转正扭转了此前连续两个月的跌势，前值（5 月）为-0.9%，4 月为-0.1%，超出了大部分经济学家的预期。汽车销售在连续两个 月下滑后出现攀升，成为推动整体增长的重要因素。而不包括机动车及其零部件的 核心零售，6 月环比也达到 0.5%，而前值为-0.2%。6 月美国密歇根大学消费者信 心指数为 60.7，前值为 52.2，但仍远低于去年 12 月 74 的高水平，反映美国主观 软数据与客观硬数据的背离。 点评报告 2025 年 7 月 18 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济组： 分析师：刘笑瑜 事件： 7 月 17 日晚 8 点半美国商务部普查局公布美国 6 月零售数据。 证书编号： S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 受超预期零售数据刺激，标普 500 指数收涨 0.54%，报 6297 点；道指涨幅 0.52%， 报 44484 点；纳指涨幅 ...

Macroeconomic Group - The June CPI in the US showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, the highest level since February, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, marking a new high since January [2] - The core CPI for June was 2.9% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.0%, while the month-on-month core CPI was 0.2% [2] - The PPI for June increased by 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest since October 2024, with a month-on-month change of 0.0% [3] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Among 12 car manufacturers, 7 achieved over 40% of their annual sales targets, indicating significant market differentiation [7] - BYD faced a rare decline in both year-on-year and month-on-month sales, highlighting intense market competition [7] - The "Two New" policy and new product launches are expected to be crucial for the second half of the year [8] Consumer Group - The company "匠心家居" anticipates a net profit of 410-460 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.7%-61.2% [10] - The growth is attributed to the expansion in overseas markets and optimization of product structure, with net profit margins increasing from 11.6% in 2017 to 26.8% in 2024 [10] - The successful launch of the high-end brand MotoMotion in the US market has been a significant driver of performance [10]

Economic Growth - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to 2024[2] - In Q2 2025, GDP growth was 5.2% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from Q1[7] - The industrial added value in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, significantly above the market expectation of 5.5%[3] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth in the first half of 2025 was 2.8%, below the expected 3.7%, and down 1.4 percentage points from Q1[3] - Retail sales in June showed a nominal year-on-year growth of 4.8%, lower than the expected 5.6%[12] - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 52% in the first half of 2025, indicating strong domestic demand[4] Sector Performance - The contribution of the tertiary sector (services) to GDP reached 60.1% in the first half of 2025, the highest in two years[4] - Manufacturing investment growth was 7.5%, while real estate investment saw a decline of 11.2%[3] - The trade surplus in June was $114.8 billion, with a cumulative surplus of $586 billion in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35%[11] Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance due to economic growth, industry competition, external economic conditions, and policy changes[5] - Despite a stable unemployment rate of 5.0% in June, the youth unemployment rate remains high, indicating ongoing labor market challenges[29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a favorable outlook for the industry with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [20]. Core Insights - The gaming market in China is showing steady recovery, with a market size of 28.051 billion yuan in May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.86% and a month-on-month increase of 2.56% [4][5]. - The issuance of game licenses has reached new highs, benefiting from policy support that has significantly reduced the average approval cycle and improved the efficiency of small and medium-sized enterprises [6]. - Mobile games are performing particularly well, with a market size of 21.177 billion yuan in May 2025, growing by 11.96% year-on-year, surpassing the overall industry growth rate [8][9]. - The overseas sales revenue of self-developed games reached 1.577 billion USD in May 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.93% and a month-on-month growth of 1.50% [13][17]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The gaming market in China has shown a steady recovery, with a market size of 28.051 billion yuan in May 2025, which is a 9.86% increase year-on-year and a 2.56% increase month-on-month [4][5]. - The client game market's growth is primarily driven by new and subsequent new releases, with significant contributions from titles like "Victory Goddess: New Hope" and "Three Kingdoms Fantasy Continent 2: Song of the Hero" [5]. Game License Issuance - The issuance of game licenses has shown a stepwise growth trend, with a total of 812 licenses issued from January to June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21% [6]. - The average monthly issuance increased from 121 licenses in the second half of 2024 to 135 licenses in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth [6]. Mobile Game Performance - The mobile game market size reached 21.177 billion yuan in May 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.96%, outpacing the overall industry growth [8]. - Notable new releases include "Brave Land" and "Three Kingdoms Fantasy Continent 2: Song of the Hero," which contributed significantly to the revenue [8]. Overseas Market Growth - The overseas sales revenue of self-developed games reached 1.577 billion USD in May 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6.93% and a month-on-month increase of 1.50% [13]. - Several titles, such as "Kingshot" and "Tasty Travels: Merge Game," have shown remarkable performance in international markets, contributing to the overall growth [14][17].

Macroeconomic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, a 0.3 percentage point increase compared to 2024. The second quarter saw a GDP growth of 5.2%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter, aligning with market expectations [2][3] - The industrial added value in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 5.5%, and showed resilience despite a slight decline in quarter-on-quarter growth [2][3] - Fixed asset investment growth for the first half of 2025 was 2.8%, below the expected 3.7%, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments showing declines [3][4] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market showed mixed signals, with new residential prices in June down by 3.7% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing price index fell by 6.1% [6][7] - The housing starts in the first half of 2025 decreased by 20% year-on-year, although there were slight improvements in construction and completion rates compared to earlier months [6][7] - The real estate development funding sources saw a year-on-year decline of 6.2%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector despite some improvements in specific metrics [7] Advanced Manufacturing Sector - The domestic new energy light truck market experienced significant growth, with sales reaching 16,600 units in June, a 17% increase from May and a 120% increase year-on-year [9][10] - The core driver of this growth is the established TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) advantage, leading to three key opportunities: increased demand for high-energy density batteries, the emergence of scenario-based charging infrastructure, and the potential for battery recycling and repurposing [10] Consumer Sector - The company "若羽臣" projected a net profit of 63-78 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 62%-100%, driven by the market expansion of its brands "绽家" and "斐萃" [12] - The growth is attributed to the successful positioning of "绽家" in the high-end household cleaning market and "斐萃" in the scientific anti-aging health sector, showcasing strong brand synergy [12]

Macro Economic Group - In June, China's exports in USD terms increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding the Wind forecast of 3.2% and the previous month's growth of 4.8% [2] - Imports grew by 1.1% year-on-year, surpassing the Wind forecast of 0.2% and recovering from a decline of 3.4% in May [2] - The trade surplus in June reached $114.8 billion, the second highest in history, only lower than January's $138.5 billion [2] - Cumulative trade data for the first half of the year shows a total trade growth of 1.8% year-on-year, with exports growing by 5.9% and imports declining by 3.9% [3] - ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner with a 13.0% year-on-year export growth, while exports to the US decreased by 10.9% [3] - In the first half of the year, the export growth rate for electromechanical products was 8.2%, while high-tech products saw a growth of 6.4% [4] Advanced Manufacturing Group - The debate over automotive-grade versus consumer-grade chips highlights significant differences in working environments, lifespan, and safety margins [10] - This controversy indicates a new phase in automotive intelligence competition, emphasizing the importance of safety and reliability [10] - The discussion may lead to three major impacts: re-evaluation of supply chain value, acceleration of domestic substitution processes, and stricter regulatory standards [10] Consumer Group - Dongpeng Beverage reported strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue between 10.63 billion and 10.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.01% to 37.68% [12] - The net profit for the first half was between 2.31 billion and 2.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.48% to 41.57% [12] - The growth is attributed to the strong performance of its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, and successful expansion into multiple product categories [12]