6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 10 月 21 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 10 月 20 日 10 点国家统计局公布 9 月中国宏观经济数据。 评论： 2025 年前三季度 GDP 同比增长 5.2%，较 2024 年回升 0.2 个百分点。其中，三季 度 GDP 同比增长 4.8%，与 Wind 的市场预期持平，较二季度回落 0.4 个百分点。分 产业看，第一产业增加值同比增长 4.0%，较一季度回升 0.2 个百分点；第二产业 增加值同比增长 4.2%，较二季度回落 0.6 个百分点；第三产业增加值同比增长 5.4%，较二季度回落 0.3 个百分点。而从季调后的环比看，三季度增长 1.1%，较 二季度回升 0.1 个百分点，而去年同期为 1.5%，三季度 GDP 同比的回落受基数的 影响较大。 从 9 月工业增加值看，同比增速为 6.5%，远高于 5.2%的市场预期，较 8 月回升 1.3 个百分点，这主要是因为今年 9 月的工作日较去年同期多 2 天。9 月季调环比为 0.6%，较 8 月高 0.2 个百分点；从累计增速看，前三季度同比增 ...

6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 10 月 20 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 分析师：刘笑瑜 证书编号： S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 事件： 10 月 17 日（星期五）财政部公布 1-9 月财政收支数据。 可见，今年前 9 个月，虽然财政收入增速持续回升，但仍显著低于财政支出增速 2.6 个百分点，在更加积极财政政策的背景下，中央收入增速虽然低于地方 3 个百分点， 但中央支出增速显著高于地方 4.9 个百分点。 从税收收入看，2025 年 1-9 月全国税收收入同比增速为 0.7%，较 1-8 月回升 0.7 个百 分点。其中，证券印花税收入增速最高，为 103.4%，较 1-8 月大幅回升 21.7 个百分 点；其次是个人所得税收入增速为 9.7%排名第二，较 1-8 月回升 0.8 个百分点；国内 增值税增速排名第三为 3.6%，较 1-8 月回升 0.4 个百分点；排名第四的消费税同比增 速均为 2.2%，较 1-8 月回升 0.2 个百分点；企业所得税为 0.8% ...

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - TSMC reported Q3 revenue of $33.1 billion, slightly above the previous guidance of $31.8-33 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 40.8% [4] - Wafer shipments, equivalent to 12-inch wafers, reached 4.085 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, with a gross margin of 59.5%, exceeding the guidance of 55.5%-57.5% [4] - The company expects Q4 revenue to be between $32.2-33.4 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 22%, with a gross margin guidance of 59%-61% [4] - The strong demand for AI is driving growth in the semiconductor industry, indicating a sustained high level of industry activity [4] Group 2: Optical Communication Industry - Shijia Photon reported a significant revenue increase of 114.0% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, totaling 1.56 billion yuan, with a net profit of 300 million yuan, up 727.7% [4] - The growth is primarily driven by the rapid increase in optical communication demand due to AI [4] - The outlook for the optical communication industry remains positive, supported by TSMC's Q4 performance and the push for a 1ms latency metropolitan optical network in China [4] Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Industry - In September, exports of new energy passenger vehicles reached 217,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 100%, while commercial vehicle exports grew by 35.2% [7] - The total export volume of new energy vehicles for the first nine months was 1.758 million units, a year-on-year increase of 89.4%, with an expected total of around 2.5 million units for the year [7] - The increase in exports is attributed to rising tariffs and non-tariff barriers in the EU, prompting companies to shift focus to regions like the Middle East and Latin America [7] - A new plan aims to build 28 million charging facilities by 2027, supporting over 80 million electric vehicles, indicating sustained growth in the charging infrastructure sector [7] Group 4: Energy Storage Industry - Nanjing Power Storage reported a revenue of 5.32 billion yuan for the first nine months, a year-on-year increase of 17.72%, with a net profit of 1.433 billion yuan, up 37.13% [8] - The growth is mainly driven by increased hydropower generation and the operational mechanisms of pumped storage [8] - The profitability is expected to be influenced by the performance of new energy storage projects and the operational mechanisms in the fourth quarter [8] Group 5: Gaming Industry - Gibit announced a significant increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit expected to be between 1.032 billion to 1.223 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 57% to 86% [10] - The third quarter alone is projected to show a net profit increase of 177% to 286%, driven by new game launches such as "Staff Sword Legend" and "Question Sword Longevity" [11] - The successful performance of these games in both domestic and overseas markets has significantly contributed to the company's revenue growth [11] - The company is also expanding its global presence with upcoming game launches planned for various regions [11]

6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 10 月 15 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、产业综合组： 国内最大的芯片 CP 测试商伟测科技公布了 2025 年第三季度的部分经营数据， 2025 年 7-9 月实现合并营业收入 44,832.45 万元，较去年同期增加 44.40%。公 司 2025 年 1-9 月实现合并营业收入 108,257.71 万元，较去年同期增加 46.22%。 同日国内 AOIT 用 SOC 芯片大厂瑞芯微也公布了 2025 年前三季度业绩预告，实 现归属于母公司净利润 76,000 万元到 80,000 万元，同比增长 116%到 127%。扣 非后净利润 73,500 万元到 77,500 万元，同比增长 114%到 126%。虽然按此测算 瑞芯微第三季度单季的净利润增速只有约 50%，明显低于上半年的业绩增速，但 主要是由于 DDR4 存储芯片从供应短缺到价格暴涨，促使部分客户中高端 AIoT 产品向 DDR5 转型，后续产品交付会快速起量，因此总体看国内半导体产业三季 度的业绩增速呈加速趋势，继续看好半导体产业景气度的持续提升。 宗申动力发布 ...

6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 10 月 13 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、产业综合组： 周末中美的贸易谈判争端显著升级，特朗普在社交媒体表示要对中国额外加征 100%关税，并且宣称还要禁止部分软件、飞机部件等也将是考虑的选项。同时中 美互相对对方加征靠港船舶的额外费用政策也都公布。受此影响，周五美股和纳 斯达克中国金龙指数都出现了显著的下跌。我们认为由于 A 股上证指数整体涨到 了 10 年高位，因此大概率也会有较大幅度的回撤。不过从双方的政策生效日期看， 都是在已经初步确定的下一轮会谈后，因此本次冲突也可以看成是双方谈判前的 相互施压。从今年四月份双方贸易站的情况看，美国加征 100%关税的手段已经使 用过，当时美国的极限施压没有达到目标，且双方都不能承受实际的贸易禁运， 最后互相撤销部分关税，因此本次的冲击会小于 4 月份。 全球 PCB 第一大厂台湾臻鼎公布第 3 季合并营收 473.66 亿元新台币，季度环比增 23.98%，随着旺季效应持续发酵，加上 IC 载板与服务器/车载/光通讯客户订单陆 续贡献，第 4 季业绩表现将再创新高。台湾华硕也公布了 9 月 ...

证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 风险提示：政策变动风险，市场机制完善不及预期的风险，并网消纳风险，下游 需求不如预期，原材料价格上涨超预期等。 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 证券研究报告 行业研究 2025 年 10 月 10 日 储能的结构性需求确立，经济性加速兑现，推动储能 行业景气度继续维持高位 第一创业证券研究所 第 1 页 共 7 页 核心观点： 新能源发电并网比例的迅速提高使储能从"可选项"变为"必选项"。以欧 盟为例，随着新能源发电占比达到 28.5%，出现了一系列问题：电价波动与 "负电价"问题；弃风弃光现象频发；系统惯量与频率质量承压；配电网承 载能力不足等。这些问题的共性根因有：时间错配；空间错配；同步机组退 出现象与系统惯量供给缺口；市场与规制配套不到位等。据 ENTSO-E 测算， 在欧盟层面，如果到 2030 年前额外配置约 56GW 储能，可将系统弃风弃光减 少约 30TWh/年，年度系统成本降低 80 亿欧元，每年减少约 1900 万吨二氧化 碳排放量。 分析师：郭强 电力系统的储能配套建设分为两 ...

Industry Overview - The A-share market has seen the Shanghai Composite Index break through 3900 points, reaching a new high in nearly a decade, with a significant increase in trading volume compared to the previous day. However, leading semiconductor companies like SMIC and BAWI Storage experienced a notable high open followed by a decline. This is attributed to profit-taking sentiment after reaching new highs and recent export control measures on rare earths and lithium battery materials, which could impact semiconductor production at 14nm and below. The ongoing tensions in US-China tariff negotiations are also highlighted, suggesting a high probability of market fluctuations in the near future [2]. Semiconductor Industry - Yangjie Technology announced its Q3 2025 earnings forecast, expecting a net profit attributable to the parent company between 936.75 million and 1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 40%-50%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 865.71 million and 932.62 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 32.41%-42.64% year-on-year. The median net profit for Q3 alone is expected to exceed 340 million yuan, showing a growth of over 47% year-on-year. The growth is primarily driven by the sustained prosperity in the semiconductor industry, particularly in automotive electronics, artificial intelligence, and consumer electronics, leading to significant growth in the company's main business and an improving gross margin [3]. Advanced Manufacturing - According to data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, 21,600 new energy heavy trucks were added in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 252% and a month-on-month increase of 37%, achieving a historical monthly sales high in this segment. The market penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks reached approximately 20.6%. The surge in sales is attributed to several factors, including the implementation of old-for-new replacement policies, seasonal and transaction rhythms, improved battery and model supply, and the establishment of battery swap and high-power charging networks along freight corridors. The economic advantages of new energy heavy trucks are significant, with cost savings of 1-1.6 yuan per kilometer compared to diesel trucks. The investment recovery period is shortened due to declining battery costs and the introduction of replacement subsidies, indicating a high and sustainable growth outlook for the new energy heavy truck sector [6]. Consumer Sector - TOPTOY submitted its IPO application on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Established in December 2020, it is the largest and fastest-growing trendy toy brand in China, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 50% in GMV from 2022 to 2024. The company has built a diversified IP matrix through self-owned, authorized, and third-party brands, with 17 self-owned IPs and over 600 third-party IPs as of September 2025. The strong performance of authorized IPs is highlighted, with cumulative sales of over 168 million yuan for Sanrio's plush toys and over 57 million yuan for the "Latte Baby" series. The company focuses on three core categories: figurines, 3D assembly models, and plush toys, with projected revenues of 1.256 billion yuan from figurines in 2024, accounting for 68.8% of total revenue. The company employs a multi-channel model and has expanded to 299 stores, including 15 overseas, enhancing customer experience through various retail formats. The long-term growth potential is promising, although there are short-term concerns regarding reliance on authorized IPs and the need to validate localization capabilities in overseas markets [8].

证券研究报告 6 从价格指数上看，9 月出厂价格指数为 48.2%，较上月回落 0.9 个百分点，处于收 缩区间；而主要原材料购进价格为 53.2%，较上月回落 0.1 个百分点，处于扩张区 间。9 月利润（出厂价格-主要原材料购进价格）指数，9 月为-5%，较上月回落 0.8 个百分点，这说明 9 月上游原材料价格的回升，未能顺利传导至下游产成品价格， 制造业企业利润难有持续的改善。 点评报告 2025 年 10 月 9 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、宏观经济组： 事件一： 9 月 30 日 9 点半国家统计局公布 9 月 PMI 数据。 评论一： 9 月中国制造业 PMI 为 49.8%，较上月回升 0.4 个百分点。其中，大型企业为 51.2%， 较上月回升 0.7 个百分点；中型企业为 48.8%，较上月回落 0.1 个百分点；小型企 业为 48.2%，较上月回升 1.6 个百分点；处于扩张区间的大型企业与处于收缩区间 的中小型企业间的景气度分化仍十分明显。 9 月生产指数为 51.9%，较上月回升 1.1 个百分点。从需求上看，新订单为 49.7%， 较上月回升 0.2 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan, which is expected to create significant investment opportunities in key industries during the fourth quarter and the first half of the following year [3] Industry Overview - The semiconductor manufacturing sector is experiencing a positive trend, particularly in copper plating equipment for the front-end of semiconductor manufacturing, aligning with the domestic shift towards high-end processes [4] - The satellite communication industry in China is poised for rapid growth following the issuance of operating licenses to major telecom companies, which will enhance emergency communication and services in remote areas [4] Advanced Manufacturing Sector - The lithium battery copper foil industry is transitioning from scale expansion to a dual increase in quality and price, with a recovery in the market, especially for high-end products [7] - The supply side is facing a shortage of high-end capacity due to high technical barriers for ultra-thin copper foils (6μm and below), while demand is expected to rise with the peak consumption season for electric vehicles and 3C products [7] - The industry is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, with high-end markets thriving due to supply constraints and cost pressures, while facing competition from alternative technologies [7] Company Performance - Shengmei Shanghai (688082.SH) reported a total order amount of 9.072 billion yuan as of September 29, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.10% [4] - Dalian Heavy Industry expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 473.74 million to 507.74 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a growth of 19.91% to 28.52% year-on-year [8] - The company anticipates a significant recovery in gross margin due to increased revenue from wind power equipment deliveries, which is expected to continue in the coming years [8]

Macro Economic Group - In the first eight months of the year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 46,930 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, marking the first positive growth since April this year, with a recovery of 2.6 percentage points compared to January-July [3] - In August, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 20.4% year-on-year, a significant rebound of 21.9 percentage points compared to July [3] - The profit margin of industrial enterprises was 5.24% in the first eight months, up from 5.15% in July, while the manufacturing sector's profit margin was 4.53%, up from 4.46% in July [3] Industry Overview - The industries with the highest year-on-year growth rates from January to August include transportation equipment manufacturing, non-ferrous metals, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, while the lowest growth rates were seen in coal mining, steel, furniture manufacturing, and textile and apparel industries [4] - Notable improvements in year-on-year growth in August were observed in the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing, steel, non-ferrous metals, chemical fiber, and transportation equipment manufacturing sectors [4] - The cement industry is expected to reduce inefficient clinker production capacity by about 10% this year, with the overall capacity utilization rate currently at around 50% [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - The Ministry of Transport and other departments have issued the "Implementation Opinions on 'Artificial Intelligence + Transportation'", aiming to establish a smart integrated transportation network by 2030 [11] - The demand for energy storage has exceeded expectations this year, driven by the expansion of new energy and the introduction of capacity price policies, leading to improved internal rate of return (IRR) for energy storage [12] - The lithium extraction capacity from salt lakes in China is expected to significantly increase, with major companies accelerating project layouts, which may lead to a decrease in lithium carbonate prices [13]