MEITUAN(03690) 天风证券·2024-12-11 04:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690) with a 6-month target price [1] Core Views - Meituan's Q3 2024 revenue and profits exceeded Bloomberg consensus estimates [1] - Revenue: 93.6 billion RMB, 1.7% above consensus [1] - EBIT: 13.7 billion RMB, 41.0% above consensus [1] - Adjusted net profit: 12.8 billion RMB, 10.1% above consensus [1] Business Segment Performance Core Local Commerce - Revenue: 69.4 billion RMB, 1.5% above consensus [1] - Delivery service: 27.8 billion RMB [1] - Commission income: 26.1 billion RMB [1] - Online marketing: 13.4 billion RMB [1] - Operating profit: 14.6 billion RMB, 13.7% above consensus [1] Food Delivery - On-demand delivery orders grew 14.5% YoY [1] - Improved operational efficiency and user experience for Pinhaofan [1] - Expanded brand satellite stores with comprehensive online support [1] Meituan Instant Retail - User base and purchase frequency achieved double-digit YoY growth [1] - Increased night orders and faster growth in lower-tier markets [1] - Expanded Meituan Instant Retail warehouses to more lower-tier markets [1] In-store, Hotel & Travel - Order volume grew over 50% YoY [1] - Record high annual transacting users and active merchants [1] - Domestic hotel room nights showed steady growth [1] - "Shen Membership" program expanded nationwide [1] New Initiatives - Revenue: 24.2 billion RMB, 3.9% above consensus [1] - Operating loss: 1.03 billion RMB, 44.0% better than consensus [1] - Meituan Select continued to narrow losses quarter-over-quarter [1] - Other new initiatives achieved collective profitability in Q3 [1] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026: 3,363/3,880/4,336 billion RMB [1] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2024-2026: 417/516/611 billion RMB [1] Competitive Advantages - Strong merchant base and decades of accumulated user reviews [1] - Solid barriers in food delivery business [1] - Clear external competitive landscape [1] - Continuous improvement in core local commerce profitability [1] - Successful reduction of losses in new initiatives [1]