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非银金融行业2025年度策略:政策引领下的格局重塑与变革突围
Donghai Securities·2024-12-11 07:41

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the non-banking financial industry. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the restructuring and transformation of the non-banking financial industry under the guidance of policies aimed at strong regulation, risk prevention, and promoting high-quality development [1]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Review: Market and Performance Recap - As of the end of November, the securities sector saw a return of +35% and the insurance sector +36%, with excess returns exceeding 20 percentage points [3]. - Overall performance in the first three quarters of 2024 showed a revenue decline of 3% year-on-year and a net profit decline of 6%, with significant pressure on brokerage and investment banking businesses [5][6]. 2. Policy Mainline: Strong Regulation, Risk Prevention, and Promotion of High-Quality Development - The new "National Nine Articles" for capital markets aims to establish a framework for development over the next five years, focusing on direct financing and enhancing market functions [20][21]. - The insurance sector's new "National Ten Articles" expands regulatory focus from scale to quality, emphasizing market access, ongoing supervision, and risk prevention [25]. 3. Trends in the Securities Sector - Trend 1: Deepening investment-side reforms, with expectations for increased long-term capital inflows. The number of new A-share accounts opened in October 2024 reached 6.85 million, indicating heightened market activity [32]. - Trend 2: Cautious equity financing, with IPO and refinancing volumes down 83.7% and 71.9% respectively, while the M&A market is heating up due to regulatory support [47]. 4. Trends in the Insurance Sector - Trend 1: Expansion of new business value (NBV) growth, driven by a surge in new policy sales following interest rate adjustments [10]. - Trend 2: Significant improvement in total investment returns, with major insurance companies reporting substantial increases in net profit [14]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong regulatory support and potential for high-quality growth, particularly in the context of ongoing reforms and market restructuring [31].